Week 11 Rankings

[willandi]

So why do you think we should be ahead of them this week?

Because I know less than you!

[Hoopaholic]

Because I know less than you!

I asked an honest question for engagement/dialogue and thats your response? It’s ok to have a difference of opinion makes a the world go round

[daskim]

Then why aren't they they ahead of us now?

Because polling isn't an exact, or logical science. Some voters make pretty idiotic decisions.

And polling doesn't win games.

[willandi]

I asked an honest question for engagement/dialogue and thats your response? It’s ok to have a difference of opinion makes a the world go round

As I said. I have been living in motels for 6 weeks, currently stuck in Page AZ waiting on car parts. I don't have a PC, just a phone.
Sorry but it is an honest answer.

[HenneZag]

Does the ranking really matter that much right now. 1 or 2? We control what we can, just win games...we still have a tough road ahead.

[zagfan08]

I watch a lot of Auburn and we are better in pretty much every metric. Auburn struggled in wins against South Florida, Saint Louis, and Ole Miss. They are good and I enjoy watching them, but I am confident we are better than them. Now, would we beat them in one game? Who knows, see Alabama. Auburn got a pretty fortunate conference schedule this year, don’t play at LSU or at Kentucky. Their fans are treating this ranking a little like we did back in 2013–fun days but I’m glad being in that discussion is the norm for us now.

I would think Gonzaga is number 1. Auburn beat soon to be unranked Alabama and Ole Miss—two league road wins but probably not enough to jump us when we are playing our best basketball of the season. And the common opponent doesn’t really mean much. Florida State just beat Miami who beat Duke. Is Florida State better than Duke?

On that note, I hate that we don’t have more competitive games in the last two months. No matter how much better the WCC gets, they can’t hang with us when we have a great team, like we do this year. Even one late season non conference game would he huge (and fun for fans). We have a young team so I’m expecting us to be a lot better as the year goes on than the first month of the season. It looks like we are, but it’s against inferior competition. If you don’t have the athletes you have zero chance at stopping us. It would be nice to get a test at some point before the tournament.

[mgadfly]

They just beat Alabama who beat us this past week thats why and a big reason they should be ahead of us in my view….as they don’t have a bad loss (with only one in overtime) but several big wins and one big win against team that beat us badly

Auburn is 10-1 in quad one and two. We are 5-2 quad one and two

Auburn has 4 away wins. We have one away win

But we beat North Alabama by more.

Alabama as a common opponent is kind of difficult to draw any real conclusions. If a team jacks up 35+ three point attempts at some point they’ll have a game where they shoot well enough to pull an upset. I’d like GUs chances against Auburn.

[zagzilla]

Tapping in, Hoopaholic.

Metrics support GU after the results of yesterday's action....

• NET: GU #1, AU #4 This metric takes Quad record into account. Our Quad 1/2 wins are better than theirs even though they have more
• BPI: GU #1, AU #11 This is a predictive metric. Ranks us higher despite the fact that AU has a better Strength of Record (SOR)
• KPom AdjEM: GU #1 +31.64, AU #9 +26.07 Means that Kenpom predicts GU would win a hypothetical game vs Auburn by 5.5 points
• Barttorvik: GU #1, AU #7 T-Rank predicts GU has a 96.8% win probability vs average NCAAM team, Auburn 94.1%

If you boil down the numbers from the various methods, they essentially conclude that our offense is way better than theirs and their defense is slightly better than ours. This would predict us scoring slightly less than we normally do but more than enough to win the game in the majority of simulations. Also key to realize that these metrics take into account the purported reasons to prefer Auburn (like SOS, common opponent and record) and still conclude GU is the better team. Finally, all major stats-based composite rankings favor GU. Not a single one prefers Auburn. Consensus is convincing.

If you believe the rankings' purpose is to accurately identify which teams are the best-meaning #1 is more likely to beat #2, then the predictive metrics should be valued higher than ones that only look at the past.

If on the other hand, you believe that the rankings are to reward a team's prior results, then you might be moved by arguments like "We beat Bama and you didn't", "WCC sucks" or "Zags never play anybody".

Count me in the former category. Go Zags!!

ZZ

[Hoopaholic]

Tapping in, Hoopaholic.

Metrics support GU after the results of yesterday's action....

• NET: GU #1, AU #4 This metric takes Quad record into account. Our Quad 1/2 wins are better than theirs even though they have more
• BPI: GU #1, AU #11 This is a predictive metric. Ranks us higher despite the fact that AU has a better Strength of Record (SOR)
• KPom AdjEM: GU #1 +31.64, AU #9 +26.07 Means that Kenpom predicts GU would win a hypothetical game vs Auburn by 5.5 points
• Barttorvik: GU #1, AU #7 T-Rank predicts GU has a 96.8% win probability vs average NCAAM team, Auburn 94.1%

If you boil down the numbers from the various methods, they essentially conclude that our offense is way better than theirs and their defense is slightly better than ours. This would predict us scoring slightly less than we normally do but more than enough to win the game in the majority of simulations. Also key to realize that these metrics take into account the purported reasons to prefer Auburn (like SOS, common opponent and record) and still conclude GU is the better team. Finally, all major stats-based composite rankings favor GU. Not a single one prefers Auburn. Consensus is convincing.

If you believe the rankings' purpose is to accurately identify which teams are the best-meaning #1 is more likely to beat #2, then the predictive metrics should be valued higher than ones that only look at the past.

If on the other hand, you believe that the rankings are to reward a team's prior results, then you might be moved by arguments like "We beat Bama and you didn't", "WCC sucks" or "Zags never play anybody".

Count me in the former category. Go Zags!!

ZZ

Fair analysis Ian a fan who believes in rewarding teams results…but not a WCC sucks or zags nevert play anybody as we have but unfortunately we came up short twice( of which I think we win those games today)

[zagzilla]

I think Bama is playing is much so worse than they were a month ago (5 losses in last 8 games), that I don't put as much value on Auburn's recent win. JD Davidson hit 4 3's against us in Seattle including that late dagger. He has made a total of 3 more in the subsequent 9 games. Exemplifies the reason I think voters should value predictive metrics.

FWIW, Gary Parrish at CBS sports agrees with you but for the wrong reason, IMO...

"Voters who rely almost strictly on computer numbers will likely put the Zags No. 1 considering Mark Few's team holds the top spot in most computers — among them the NET, KenPom, BPI, Sagarin and Torvik. But if the goal is to reward the team that has accomplished the most through the first 10 weeks of this season, Auburn should move to No. 1 in the AP poll for the first time in school history. Bruce Pearl's Tigers have the best body of work."

"Body of work" is flawed because it is predictably biased in favor of power conference schools which is why RPI is such a flawed metric. By way of example, Auburn is #1 in RPI right now and GU is tied with Duke for #31. Do we really think there are 30 better teams than Duke and GU? Of course not. Then why should we believe Auburn is #1?

The reason this is a fun discussion is because there are two potentially valid perspectives. Just happen to think mine is right

ZZ

[katman50]

We shall see tomorrow. Don't know how closely voters study the metrics. I welcome input on both sides. I still say Auburn gets the nod by the voters. Really, who cares? I am happy with #2. Just want our boys to keep winning.

[Hoopaholic]

I think Bama is playing is much so worse than they were a month ago (5 losses in last 8 games), that I don't put as much value on Auburn's recent win. JD Davidson hit 4 3's against us in Seattle including that late dagger. He has made a total of 3 more in the subsequent 9 games. Exemplifies the reason I think voters should value predictive metrics.

FWIW, Gary Parrish at CBS sports agrees with you but for the wrong reason, IMO...

"Voters who rely almost strictly on computer numbers will likely put the Zags No. 1 considering Mark Few's team holds the top spot in most computers — among them the NET, KenPom, BPI, Sagarin and Torvik. But if the goal is to reward the team that has accomplished the most through the first 10 weeks of this season, Auburn should move to No. 1 in the AP poll for the first time in school history. Bruce Pearl's Tigers have the best body of work."

"Body of work" is flawed because it is predictably biased in favor of power conference schools which is why RPI is such a flawed metric. By way of example, Auburn is #1 in RPI right now and GU is tied with Duke for #31. Do we really think there are 30 better teams than Duke and GU? Of course not. Then why should we believe Auburn is #1?

The reason this is a fun discussion is because there are two potentially valid perspectives. Just happen to think mine is right

ZZ

I don’t see how body of work can be flawed…if we had won one of the two we dropped there would be no discussion. Got to take care of what’s in front of you each game day

[titopoet]

AP is just a opinion beauty contest. The real ranking is the NET which the committee uses for overall seeding and GU is number one. Also, Auburn is good and peaking now (too early ... maybe) but Tommy's team will be better in the end. GU is growing, which is scary. AP will come around if GU stays the course.

[HenneZag]

How about we just find a way to play Auburn this week and put this discussion to bed. I would love to beat down sly Pearl. Wishful thinking.

[RenoZag]

https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-col...asketball-poll

AP Top 10
1. GU --1,486 / 25
2. AUB -- 1,482 / 36
3. AZ
4. PUR
5. BAY
6. DUKE
7. KAN
8. WISC
9. UCLA
10. HOU

Auburn received more 1st place votes. . .BYU in the "others receiving votes" category

Auburn was ranked 9th by the KC Star's Jesse Newell and 6th by Mercury News writer Jon Wilner. . .those two ballots likely made the difference:

https://collegepolltracker.com/baske...rn-tigers/2021

Zags lowest rankings were one 3rd and one 4th:

https://collegepolltracker.com/baske...-bulldogs/2021