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  • For those holding out for the vaccine to be the end of Covid-19, may wish to re-evaluate their expectations.

    Fauci tells Americans to be mindful of these important limitations about any future coronavirus vaccine
    Quentin Fottrell

    Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases for the last three decades and an expert on pandemics for the last four decades, has been optimistic on a vaccine arriving at the end of 2020 or in early 2021, but he has also cautioned the public on their expectations for the effectiveness of any vaccine that is developed.

    “The chances of it being 98% are not great, which means you must never abandon the public-health approach,” Fauci told a recent live streamed Q&A hosted by Brown University. “You’ve got to think of a vaccine as a tool to be able to get a pandemic to no longer be a pandemic, but to be something that’s well-controlled.”

    “What I’m shooting for is that, with a vaccine and good public-health measures, we can bring it down to somewhere between really good control and elimination,” he told Abdullah Shihipar, a public-health research associate at Brown in the interview. “So that’s what a vaccine is going to do, but it’s not going to do that alone.”

    ‘The chances of it being 98% are not great. Which means you must never abandon the public-health approach.’ — Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

    Fauci has said he was hopeful that a coronavirus vaccine could be developed by early 2021, but has previously said it’s unlikely that a vaccine will deliver 100% immunity; he said the best realistic outcome, based on other vaccines, would be 70% to 75% effective. The measles vaccine, he said, is among the most effective by providing 97% immunity.

    Reviews of past studies have found that, on average, the flu vaccine is about 50% to 60% effective for healthy adults who are between 18 and 64 years old, according to a review of studies by the Mayo Clinic. “The vaccine may sometimes be less effective,” it said. “Even when the vaccine doesn’t completely prevent the flu, it may lessen the severity of your illness.”

    Fauci advocates face masks, social distancing and avoiding bars and indoor spaces with crowds. “If we do those things — and I’m going to repeat it until I’m exhausted — those things work,” he said on Friday’s live stream. “When you have something that needs everybody pulling at the same time, if you have one weak link in there that doesn’t do it, it doesn’t allow you to get to the end game.”
    Read entire article here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...xEz?li=BBnb7Kz

    ZagDad

    Comment


    • Skip said, "get out before you get sucked into their dark negative world." Well, get ready for reality. I encourage you to read this article. It's full of information by actual public health officials (EXPERTS). Deny their views at your own peril. We have just a month or two to prepare for what this article informs.

      Statnews is a reputable news source for healthcare professionals. Meanwhile, their articles are generally readable for the general public. This one should be read by all. I said winter is coming. They said it too:






      “I think November, December, January, February are going to be tough months in this country without a vaccine,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

      It is possible, of course, that some vaccines could be approved by then, thanks to historically rapid scientific work. But there is little prospect that vast numbers of Americans will be vaccinated in time to forestall the grim winter Osterholm and others foresee.
      To put that in perspective, at this rate the U.S. is racking up more cases in a week than Britain has accumulated since the start of the pandemic.
      The country has fallen into a dangerous pattern, Osterholm said, where a spike in cases in a location leads to some temporary restraint from people who eventually become alarmed enough to start to take precautions. But as soon as cases start to plateau or decline a little, victory over the virus is declared and people think it’s safe to resume normal life.

      “It’s like an all or nothing phenomenon, right?” said Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “You all locked down or you get so discouraged with being in lockdown that you decide you’re going to be in crowded bars … you can have indoor parties with no masks. You can do all the things that are going to get you in trouble.”
      Ehresmann and others in public health are flummoxed by the phenomenon of people refusing to acknowledge the risk the virus poses.

      “Just this idea of, ‘I just don’t want to believe it so therefore it’s not going to be true’ — honestly, I have not really dealt with that as it relates to disease before,” she said.
      Young people in particular need to understand that even if they are less likely to die from Covid-19, statistically speaking, transmission among 20-somethings will eventually lead to infections among their parents and grandparents, where the risk of severe infections and fatal outcomes is higher. (Young people can also develop long-term health problems as a result of the virus.)
      Last edited by caduceus; 08-11-2020, 03:34 AM.

      Comment


      • A Lesson on How Not to Re-open Schools.

        Georgia School District Quarantines Over 900 Students and Teachers
        New York Times
        Richard Fausset

        CANTON, Ga. — The first letter went out on Aug. 4, one day after students in the Cherokee County School District returned to their classrooms for the first time since the eruption of the coronavirus pandemic.

        “Dear Parents,” wrote Dr. Ashley Kennerly, the principal of Sixes Elementary School. “I am writing this letter in order to communicate that a student in 2nd grade has tested positive for Covid-19.”

        By the time the last bell rang on Friday afternoon, principals at 10 other schools had sent similar letters to families in Cherokee County, a bucolic and politically conservative stretch of suburbs north of Atlanta. This week, more letters went out.

        Altogether, more than 900 students and staff members in the district have already been ordered to quarantine. On Tuesday, one high school closed its doors until at least Aug. 31.

        While many of the nation’s largest school systems have opted in recent weeks to start the academic year online, other districts have forged ahead with reopening. In Georgia, Tennessee, Mississippi, Indiana and elsewhere, some schools, mainly in suburban and rural areas, have been open for almost two weeks.

        Their experience reveals the perils of returning to classrooms in places where the coronavirus has hardly been tamed. Students and teachers have immediately tested positive, sending others into two-week quarantines and creating whiplash for schools that were eager to open, only to consider closing again right away.
        Read the rest of the article here including why some parents and administrators consider the opening a success and others not so much: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ge...wKt?li=BBnb7Kz

        The picture posted by Cad earlier in this thread of the crowded High School Hallway was from a school in the Cherokee County School District.

        ZagDad

        Comment


        • Originally posted by caduceus View Post
          This is wrong. I've iterated several times why proactive non-pharmaceutical interventions ("flattening the curve") are about MUCH MORE than maintaining hospital bed availability. I can go over that again with the near dozen reasons why, but it's easy to look back on the board. If you still question whether lockdowns don't work, look at New Zealand, which locked down hard, contact traced & quarantined, and now has been virus free for over three months (and back to completely normal life there).

          I"m repeating myself again, but studies have shown the lockdowns saved tens of thousands of lives. It is absolutely wrong that they did nothing to reduce infection transmission in the long term. The problem is that people suddenly decided it was over in late May and dangerously thought they knew more than the experts, dropped their guard, and cases exploded in those places.

          While most of the recent infections have been in younger people (esp 20-29), most of the deaths in that subsequent wave have continued to be older people, suggesting that contacts of younger infecteds are spreading it to more vulnerable populations.

          There have been many hundreds of hospitalizations of children, and of those hospitalizations 1/3 have required ICU care (same ratio as adults). All the while the population of kids have been one of the most shielded groups since March.
          https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pol...election-delay

          https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...unknown-source

          Comment


          • Comment


            • Originally posted by Zagceo View Post
              You got that right.

              ZagDad

              Comment


              • Pretty shocking to hear Pac-12 canceled basketball until 2021. Even more shocking to Lady Zag fans because we usually play Stanford before conference season, and its a huge game for us. Even more surprising no Kelly Graves and his loaded Oregon Ducks won't play until 2021 they would probably would have been number one rated team coming out of the gate again.

                It must be shocking to coach Graves. This seems like March 2020 one minute CLF mad about playing with no fans, when it turned out the concern should of been just to be able to play games. The crazier thing this time is nobody was more prepared to play games in the Covid-19 pandemic, than coach Graves he had his players playing with masks on the court from the first practice.

                So now we know the Lady Zags have to be worried about being able to play basketball games in 2020.

                Will the WCC be committed to play basketball in 2020?

                Will all the leaders of WCC colleges be committed to play basketball in 2020?

                Will a player Bubble be explored?

                Will players be required to play wearing masks in practices and during games on the court?

                Will WCC guidelines for basketball players, coaches, referees, be strict enough to ensure a successful basketball season?

                We have already seen we have no leadership from the NCAA what so ever. They have left it to the conferences to make their own decisions. College Football is done for 2020 more shoes to drop in future weeks.

                Now the elephant in the room is College Basketball, will the Lady Zags play in 2020?
                Last edited by ZAGS ATTACK BASKET; 08-12-2020, 05:04 PM.

                Comment


                • Hmmm. What would you rather have, a dozen or so active cases and 22 deaths in a country of 5 million, or 50 million cases and 170,000 dead out of 350 million and transmission spinning out of control? NZ has a (not unexpected) outbreak that can likely be managed by traditional public health measures. This is standard epidemic practice. NZ rightfully locked back down in Auckland and advanced measures for the rest of the country. A smart national response.

                  In contrast, we have barely any public health measures in many places in this country. We have nearly a thousand expired health care workers that sacrificed their lives while people are out carelessly socializing and shunning medical recommendations. It's disgraceful.

                  Not sure what your point is. Winter is coming and we will move from the frying pan into the fire. One county in the U.S. has already seen 1000 students and staff in quarantine after just 8 days of school, in a district that flouted standard public health practices. Most experts recommend we shut down again to the point of getting numbers down to being able to trace and isolate. That would save thousands of lives between now and the end of the year, and would give us the best chance of getting back to normal. Our window of opportunity is closing fast.

                  As for the comic (coming from an artist known for racist and controversial images and a very political bent that should not be a part of this board), it's amazing how one-dimensional some people can be. I said it before, it's not ON/OFF, and there are complexities that many people don't understand or want to acknowledge. Fauci's words are a result of good scientific practice. That is, when we learn new things, we adjust our positions to adapt to those new findings. If you're running a zone defense and it isn't working, hell if you don't make adjustments. This is central to all scientific practice. We learn, and adapt. Everything he said (at the time it was said) was absolutely true. We didn't think masks were that effective in the context of this virus. We now know that it reduces transmission by 75%. We do need a vaccine, and he's right, it might not help. It depends on efficacy, manufacturing capacity, public compliance with taking it, as well as continuing masks and distancing for a good long while.

                  Stop trying to close threads by injecting politics. It's disruptive and prevents people from discussing the science that leads to consequences for college basketball.

                  Back on topic, the Big East just shut down all fall sports. They said they would re-evaluate winter sports at a later date.

                  Comment


                  • Fauci knowingly lied about the use of masks.....and admitted it.

                    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/dr...ks/ar-BB15zyW3

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Zagceo View Post
                      Fauci knowingly lied about the use of masks.....and admitted it.

                      https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/dr...ks/ar-BB15zyW3
                      An opinion piece from June, before most of the data was known. You're beating a dead horse. I said before, we react to the ongoing circumstances, as all scientists should. All the while knowing that a hoard on PPE was going to kill healthcare professionals. And it did. Reusing masks in this country is unheard of (not to even mention wearing garbage bags for protection), yet we hear about it day after day, to the point that it actually causes infection and horrible consequences, like most third world countries. And it killed doctors and nurses to the tune of a thousand of them. He was trying to save lives (all the while under pressure from people that have no medical expertise but other agendas), yet you mock it like it's just another day to day issue that's fodder for a discussion board. It's apparent that's not important to you because you're focusing on petty arguments that ultimately cost people and their families a whole lot of pain and suffering. For Christ's sake, we all as health professionals begged the public not to sequester basic protection for those that needed it most. Yet here we are, putting our N95s in paper bags and hoping a new supply shows up. THIS IS NOT NORMAL.

                      I don't find any empathy in your words, or care for the people on the ground that deal with this awful situation every day. Stop flinging poo from your balcony. As it's clear you have absolutely, positively, most incredibly, posilutely, zero medical or scientific training, please tell me your qualifications about masks that make you have such a hard opinion. Educate me. I find your apathy troubling.

                      Keep the damn politics out of these discussions or find a better venue unless you have some actual data to provide instead of editorial pieces. The rest of us would like to keep these threads from getting zapped because of political trolls.

                      Comment


                      • Fauci admitted to lying about Masks.....no opinion.

                        Keep on subject and stop name calling.

                        Comment


                        • It was clear to me in March that we were being advised not to wear masks so that they would be spared for medical professionals. I remember a conversation with my father in law when, after he brought me some his supply of masks, he promised to procure more, and I asked him if that was good idea considering the reported shortages for medical workers.

                          If for some reason, you took the recommendations at the time to heart and are now unwilling to pivot, even as it's clear that widespread use of cloth coverings will both reduce transmission and improve the economic rebound, that's really a you problem, not a Fauci problem.
                          Agent provocateur

                          Comment


                          • First, thank you ZagCEO for providing a link with documentation where mask wearing was discouraged. We cannot have discussion without documentation and you did just as Cad asked. Thank You.

                            That being said, as noted above almost all of the Fauci comments noted in the article you provided were from February/March, 2020. I think you will admit that there probably is much more recent data on the effectiveness of wearing masks than there was in February/March. No, Fauci is not infallible, and he has changed his tune and recommendations as more data becomes available.

                            What I don't get is the people who keep complaining that we are "moving the goalposts" or "changing the guidelines/recommendations." There are 10s of thousands (if not more) of researchers around the world working on every aspect of Covid-19. You would hope that new knowledge is being found, maybe as frequently as daily/weekly. As more data is found and made available to the medical community you certainly would expect the medical community would revise their recommendations/guidelines to incorporate the new data. It really is not rocket science.

                            If the goalposts were not moving, is when you should be scared as that would indicate a lack of new knowledge being found out by all of those researchers.

                            The information on masks changes frequently. We were originally told that masks only protected other people, then we found out that they provided significant protection for the wearer. We don't all have access to N95 masks and over the past several months we have learned that multi-layer paper masks and multi-layer, homemade, cloth masks can be very effective. Just this past week we have found out that bandanas are really not very effective and gaiter type masks are not effective at all. Just some examples of how new knowledge can improve the effectiveness of wearing masks and mask types that we use. We all need to incorporate the influx of new knowledge into our everyday life. Be flexible, be open and adjust your practices to account for the latest data that has been provided.

                            Information on social distancing is also becoming available. The six feet of distance required for social distancing is a minimum, given no wind or air movements created by heating/cooling systems. Even a small amount of air flow (or wind) can increase the distances droplets can travel from a sneeze or cough out to as far as 20 feet or more (depending on the the velocity of the wind or air flow). Social distance without wearing your masks at your own peril.

                            We see this moving target represented in our sports community. Are we going to play, when are we going to play, where are we going to play, which sports are going to play, fans? What impact is money going to have on which sports are going to be played? Many conferences, College Presidents, ADs, coaches, etc. are waiting to the last minute to get the latest data on Covid infection rates and hospitalizations before making their final decisions (for this week anyway).

                            Nobody knows when a vaccine will be made available to the general public, how effective the vaccine will be, and what the side effects of the vaccine will have, and so on. Thus while a future vaccine will be a part (likely a major part) of the eventual Covid-19 solution, the most likely scenario will be the vaccine will need to be combined with some amount of masking and social distancing to become a truly effective solution.

                            Herd Immunity has not been shown to be effective. Some people have already caught Covid-19 more than once. Countries who have tried (intentionally and some unintentionally) the Herd Immunity option have had people dying off at death rates that are far above those using other methods and the percentage of the population shown with latent anti-bodies is considerably less than anticipated. The effectiveness of Herd Immunity has not yet been determined, so counting on this immunity as the final solution to Covid-19 would not appear to be a wise choice.

                            The healthcare mouthpieces are doing what they are supposed to do, which is look out for the public health. They are not responsible for the economical or educational impacts caused as a result of their recommendations, that is the responsibility of others (Governors, Mayors, Superintendents, etc.) to address these issues. Unless you are expecting a change in the Governor's seat in Washington State (Sorry Cad) come November, our path is set. We all want and need to get to Phase III before more businesses will be permitted to open, the occupancy of certain establishments will be permitted to be increased, in school classes can be held (at least part time) and so on.

                            No matter what side of the isle you are on, the goal of everybody would appear to be to get to Phase III and then on to Phase IV to get closer to normalcy. You need to ask yourself, is what you are doing, practicing or preaching helping the State move towards Phase III or is it making the time we are going to spend in Phase II longer and delaying our movement forward. Are you part of the solution or are you part of the problem.

                            ZagDad

                            Comment


                            • Fauci should have been honest and just told the public....use a bandana....make a mask from cloth we need to preserve N95 type masks along with Surgical masks for healthcare workers.

                              what would have been wrong with that advice?

                              I'm not against masks I'm pointing out a strange logic Fauci used.

                              Comment


                              • Fall Update
                                Gonzaga Athletics 8/13/2020 11:01:00 AM

                                West Coast Conference Postpones Fall Competition

                                SAN BRUNO, Calif. – With the health and safety of student-athletes and everyone connected with the West Coast Conference guiding all discussions, the WCC has postponed all conference fall competition due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

                                The WCC Presidents' Council, in consultation with the Conference's 10 athletic directors and Commissioner Gloria Nevarez, made this decision following thorough discussion over the course of several weeks.

                                "The welfare of the great student-athletes of the West Coast Conference is and always will be the guiding principle in our discussions and why we ultimately arrived at this difficult decision," said University of San Diego President James T. Harris, the chair of the WCC Presidents' Council. "The fall term for everyone associated with our member institutions will be different. We understand this and will continue to plan for a safe return to campus and a safe return to athletic competition in the WCC at the appropriate time."

                                The WCC remains fully committed and continues to work closely with campus leadership on plans to ensure a safe environment to conduct the 2020-21 WCC men's and women's basketball seasons in the winter. The Conference intends to explore various models for conducting WCC competition in the fall sports of men's and women's cross country, men's and women's soccer and women's volleyball in the spring of 2021. The WCC strongly supports efforts to encourage the National Collegiate Athletic Association to conduct fall NCAA championships in the spring.

                                The postponement of WCC fall sports seasons and championships does not preclude member institutions from scheduling non-conference competitions in low risk sports in the fall.

                                "We empathize with our student-athletes," said Nevarez. "This is a difficult decision, but it is the responsible decision based on the available information associated with conducting competition in the current environment. WCC programs compete for national titles and we never want to take these opportunities away. However, health and safety will always be paramount in guiding our decisions. We must ensure our student-athletes have a safe environment to compete and meet the NCAA's guidelines for Resocialization of Collegiate Sport, along with current federal, state and local health and safety measures in place at each member institution. We are committed to providing the safeguards to conduct a men's and women's basketball season this winter. We want to get back to celebrating the tremendous achievements of our programs as soon as we can, but we must first ensure we can compete in a safe manner."

                                Discussions involving various scheduling models, gameday safety protocols and a timeline for WCC competition are ongoing and will be shared at the appropriate time.

                                Statements from Gonzaga University
                                Gonzaga President Thayne McCulloh
                                "The COVID-19 pandemic has ushered in an era marked by many challenges and disappointments; we are saddened, alongside our student-athletes and their coaches, with the postponement of their fall competition seasons. Our first obligation is to keep the health and safety of all of our students always at the forefront of our decision-making. Gonzaga supports, together with our colleagues from the West Coast Conference member institutions, today's decision and we will stay committed to supporting our student-athletes intellectually, spiritually, culturally, physically, and emotionally as prescribed in the University's mission. Gonzaga is committed to ensuring that they have what they need to be successful in their academic pursuits and be ready when it is safe to resume athletic competition."

                                Gonzaga Director of Athletics Mike Roth
                                "Gonzaga Athletics supports the West Coast Conference decision to postpone fall sports, and we share in the disappointment with our student-athletes, coaches and staff. They have put in so much work and have shown so much patience through all of this that they deserve our gratitude. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought major challenges and uncertainty, which has created difficult decisions. Health and safety are paramount to the process, and we strive to take all aspects of the student-athlete experience into consideration. We believe that, with guidance from health officials and medical experts, this is the right call at this time. We know that doesn't make it any easier for our programs, but the well-being of student-athletes will remain our top priority. We are looking forward to resuming athletic competition when it is safe to do so, and we want to commend WCC Commissioner Gloria Nevarez and the university presidents for their leadership during this time."

                                Men's Cross Country Head Coach Pat Tyson and Women's Cross Country Head Coach Jake Stewart
                                "As a coaching staff, our first thoughts of today's news are about the student-athletes who are part of Gonzaga's Cross Country program. We know how hard they worked this summer to prepare for cross country, how badly they wanted to race with their teammates and ultimately know what goals they all were striving for. We hurt for them. But we also know as a group we have to do what's necessary to protect ourselves, our teammates and the Gonzaga community. We all understand the gravity of the decision that was made, and the thought that went into it. Knowing that, we all have to do our part. Our hope now is for our student-athletes to have the chance to grow closer to one another this fall, support each other, and find every aspect of being a team that's available to them given the current circumstances. That's important to us all. We can all keep working hard for ourselves and one another. When the next opportunity comes for us to represent Gonzaga University, we'll be ready."

                                Women's Soccer Head Coach Chris Watkins
                                "This is a trying time for the Gonzaga Women's Soccer Family as we hear of the postponement of our fall season. We are grateful for the thorough care and leadership we have felt within the WCC and specifically our Athletic Department. I am proud of our offseason preparation, the commitment of our players and the continued opportunity to develop and advance our program. I look forward to the next time we can proudly wear the GONZAGA logo on our jerseys at our next match!"

                                Men's Soccer Head Coach Paul Meehan
                                "While the news that our season has been postponed is disappointing, we trust in the decision made by the WCC that has the health and safety of our student-athletes in mind. It is tough news to take, but I am proud of the resilience of our guys and know we will be stronger because of this. Our leaders have had very difficult decisions to make during these very challenging times and whenever we are able to compete again, we'll be ready. We'll continue to focus on our academics and keep growing this fall."

                                Volleyball Head Coach Diane Nelson
                                "I'm heartbroken for the student-athletes. The health and safety of our student-athletes will always be the priority. We will move forward with gratitude and optimism. We will continue to build our team first culture and find ways to serve others during this time. We strive for greatness at Gonzaga Volleyball and define it for our student-athletes as "always learning, always growing." Regardless of circumstances we can do that. I am incredibly grateful for the dedication and support demonstrated by my staff, all of our student-athletes, and the amazing Zag community. We will get through this."

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