Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

COVID-19 - Links, Discussion,

Collapse
This topic is closed.
X
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #16
    Originally posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    Keep in mind the death rate is an echo of the new infections. In NY, the new infections from about 10 days ago were spiking... I think the increase in the death rate is likely a reflection of that spike. The rate of new infections is slowing some. Growth rates last week were ranging from 23-42% per day. Last three days has been at about 12-14%. Now, mind you, that is day to to growth of infections so it is a LARGE number. But it is slowing some.

    The scary thing is that the "spike" last week was numbering in the 1-2K range.... and that one is taxing NY heavily now. The current growth is 7-8K per day in NY. In other words, NY is adding per day more than the total of that initial spike. The lack of equipment is going to cost a ton of lives. I have a friend that is a nurse on those front lines... she likely has it now. Nurses and docs are dropping like flies due to lack of PPE... I shudder to think what the next couple weeks are going to bring here... It will likely shock everyone to the core. Whatever you THINK it will be, it will likely pale in comparison to reality.

    FYI... foo is the only place I am ever going to post until likely the summer... and even that is going to be rare.
    That's awful about your nurse friend becoming infected. I know here the hospitals were already extremely low on PPE by the time we had our first confirmed positive in the county (they were being told 'here's your mask for the day,' and the next day it was 'here's your mask for the week'. I made 86 fabric face masks to send to one of the nursing homes near us because they can't even buy the non-n95 masks. I'm going to keep making them to donate as long as I can get the materials but that's becoming harder and harder because places that sell what I need were closed due to being non essential.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Jazzgirl_127 View Post
      That's awful about your nurse friend becoming infected. I know here the hospitals were already extremely low on PPE by the time we had our first confirmed positive in the county (they were being told 'here's your mask for the day,' and the next day it was 'here's your mask for the week'. I made 86 fabric face masks to send to one of the nursing homes near us because they can't even buy the non-n95 masks. I'm going to keep making them to donate as long as I can get the materials but that's becoming harder and harder because places that sell what I need were closed due to being non essential.
      you can probably get a lot of that online.
      'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
      - Gandalf the Grey

      ________________________________



      Foo Time

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by kitzbuel View Post
        you can probably get a lot of that online.
        It has really long ship dates. Late May delivery. I wasn't planning to actually go into stores and shop, but even doing a curbside pickup for online orders isn't possible since they are completely shut.

        Comment


        • #19
          CDC has a lot of data.
          Bring back the OCC

          Comment


          • #20
            This would be pretty awesome if it's effective! https://www.upmc.com/media/news/0402...s-cov2-vaccine

            Last week was the anniversary of Salk's polio vaccine.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by Jazzgirl_127 View Post
              This would be pretty awesome if it's effective! https://www.upmc.com/media/news/0402...s-cov2-vaccine

              Last week was the anniversary of Salk's polio vaccine.
              Maybe they can try testing the vaccination on tigers next!
              'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
              - Gandalf the Grey

              ________________________________



              Foo Time

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by kitzbuel View Post
                Maybe they can try testing the vaccination on tigers next!
                Or Cougars.
                Not even a smile? What's your problem!

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by kitzbuel View Post
                  Maybe they can try testing the vaccination on tigers next!
                  I saw that, that's crazy they can catch it too. They're also working on a test to test for immunity, I guess if a vaccine takes awhile at least the immunity test will let some people go back to their normal lives.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    " Nurses and docs are dropping like flies due to lack of PPE... I shudder to think what the next couple weeks are going to bring here... It will likely shock everyone to the core. Whatever you THINK it will be, it will likely pale in comparison to reality. " 4/1/20 LIZ if you have other data...….post it please

                    https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus...-staff-1496056

                    Probably a few more in the last week. This is from 4/4/2020

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      In mid January, China banned travel to and from Wuhan within China, yet they allowed travel from Wuhan to other Counties. That doesn't seem like a good idea. W.H.O said masks are a bad idea back in early March. Big mistake there. China said back in March, they will let America drown in Corona Virus, that's not a very nice thing to say during a pandemic. Maybe we need to rethink a few things in the future.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Hospital admits for Corona dropping, ICU admits for corona dropping, Ventilator use is likewise dropping, Death rates are slowing. 20 years of data analysis shows the Influenza mortality ranges from 29K to 61K annually in the US. Surely there will be more fatal outcomes but the trend is better. Long slog to get this cleaned up but it appears progress is being made. Happy Easter friends..

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Interesting how Sweden handled its economy

                          https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...demic-11966132

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Dashboard Link: https://ncov2019.live/data?fbclid=Iw...pidJ7R7ovzpGfI. (as of 4/16/2020 6:42pm PDST )

                            US Confirmed Cases 675,640. An increase of 27,637 from yesterday.
                            US Deaths 34,552. An increase of 2,079 from yesterday.

                            34522 / 675,640 = 5.1%.
                            The GUB Resource Library: Links to: Stats, Blogs, Brackets, & More. . .

                            “They go to school. They do their homework. They shake hands. They say please and thank you. But once you throw that ball up, they will rip your heart out and watch you bleed.” -- Jay Bilas

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Reno, it's become well know now that you could die from something else but if you were seropositive, it's counted as a COVID death. Another aberration is in NY ( and who knows where else) where 4000 died and those deaths were counted as COVID but they were never tested for COVID so the Diagnosis could be confirmed or not.

                              Im not sure how or why the deaths were counted this way but death directly caused by Corona will likely be much less than advertised when the formal data is finally known. Johns Hopkins is the data management center. Duke and Hopkins are thought to be the best. Lots to be known yet. Death rates and mortality counts are slowing. I think that's a good sign.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by MDABE80 View Post
                                Reno, it's become well know now that you could die from something else but if you were seropositive, it's counted as a COVID death. Another aberration is in NY ( and who knows where else) where 4000 died and those deaths were counted as COVID but they were never tested for COVID so the Diagnosis could be confirmed or not.

                                Im not sure how or why the deaths were counted this way but death directly caused by Corona will likely be much less than advertised when the formal data is finally known. Johns Hopkins is the data management center. Duke and Hopkins are thought to be the best. Lots to be known yet. Death rates and mortality counts are slowing. I think that's a good sign.
                                Abe, this is the same method the CDC uses to calculate Flu death burden, among others. This counts things like deaths from pneumonia acquired in hospital, a proximate cause, as deaths from flu, the root cause of the hospitalization. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/faq.htm

                                Here's a rough visualization of the kind of thing the CDC uses to estimate true deaths. We know traffic accidents are down, homicides are down, and all other diseases are also WAY DOWN due to little human-human contact. So CDC uses all cause mortality to estimate deaths due to Covid-19. By the way, this graph is now 2 weeks old. In those two weeks USA deaths have gone from ~8.5K to ~38.5K.



                                Originally posted by MDABE80 View Post
                                You missed the point. Im speaking to the low mortality rate across the couintry which hovers at 1.4-1.9% according Johns Hopkins which is the clearing house of the data.
                                Abe - When did Johns Hopkins ever provide a USA mortality rate of 1.4-1.9%? For reference, South Korea, which has had the most extensive contact tracing & testing, not hesitating to test the asymptomatic, to the extent that they barely have any cases or deaths now, has a Case Fatality Rate of over 2%. To believe that the fatality rate is actually ~1%, you have to believe Korea is missing >50% of cases. Abe, if you can demonstrate that Johns Hopkins was giving a USA mortality rate under 2% at any time this month (your quote was 1.4-1.9% in April) I'll never respond to any claims in any of your posts again. Ball is in your court, simply substantiate your claim.

                                The Johns Hopkins screenshot below is from today, April 18 2020. We are 25 days past when you predicted "this will mostly be over in 2-3 weeks" and the Johns Hopkins Mortality is quadruple what you claimed it was (quoted above) from early April, despite you telling us it has also been falling from that baseline.








                                Here's some background on counting or estimating deaths for a hurricane, epidemic, etc by comparing all cause mortality (total dead people) this week, to this same week last year and the year before. The Economist gives 5 free articles and then required a subscription, but I'll post a couple screenshots.




                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X