Covid Discussion

[MDABE80]

Will , remember those nursing home people are very old, have major comorbid diseases and have covid delivered to them. As it turns out, the worst case was brought to the bedside. SO don't go to bed either!. Stay safe.

[LTownZag]

And right on schedule, this virus is dying out in the worst infected state ( New York). If you all remember I said it would be a gonner withing 3 months, SOme remains but this does show the usual behavior of an epidemic.

You said in early May that "the present COVID threat was fizzling out" and in late may you wrote "I said it would be a goner within 3 months".

If July has more deaths than May or June, and if September and October each have more deaths than May or June or July, should we expect any kind of acknowledgement?

Any self-reflection or self-awareness or acknowledgement about what part of your mental model of the pandemic was incorrect?

If your predictions of fizzling out or being a goner within 3 months of May are correct, I will be very grateful!

[MDABE80]

No to anything and everything authored by you......... it IS fizzling. all data shows it. And it's consistent. If things take a turn for the worse ( won't happen), we'll deal with that if it happens. The hosts are dying off......what don't you get about older people being dead??? ( if it was indeed COVID that killed them) . On this go round, the targets are leaving us. We do keep producing older people.. Hopefully the olders are now being protected. What I don't understand is why you keep harping on me acknowledging something..youu have an answer for that? It's been months and you really have nothing new to say. So what's your point Bub??

[MDABE80]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdN-...d9tx5JCXN7_FAU

Persistent problem with false positives.....when you have a positive test, half are wrong. Quite the problem. the test result is positive but the patients doesn't have the disease half the time. Make one wonder what data they're using as COMID falls per testing and mortality/admissions to the hospital, etc...

[LTownZag]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdN-...d9tx5JCXN7_FAU

Persistent problem with false positives.....when you have a positive test, half are wrong. Quite the problem. the test result is positive but the patients doesn't have the disease half the time. Make one wonder what data they're using as COMID falls per testing and mortality/admissions to the hospital, etc...

No problem, MDABE80.

I'll happily evaluate your claims from 6 weeks ago about how COVID "is fizzling out" and "dying out" by purely looking at the deaths, not the infected numbers. If you're right, we'll see a "fizzled" amount of COVID deaths, and no significant increases in mortality due to respiratory illness.

Of course if you are wrong, we'll see significant increases in mortality specifically among the age groups and in the places that report large COVID outbreaks.

But either way, we won't need to rely on the active/new infection numbers which you describe being skeptical of. So that's great!

[LTownZag]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdN-...d9tx5JCXN7_FAU

Persistent problem with false positives.....when you have a positive test, half are wrong. Quite the problem. the test result is positive but the patients doesn't have the disease half the time. Make one wonder what data they're using as COMID falls per testing and mortality/admissions to the hospital, etc...

She's not saying (even back on April 20) that half of the positive tests are false positives. That's an internet conspiracy misrepresentation of her claim, using a clip with no context, that's been passed around among far-right fringe circles of extremist websites. It's not what she's saying or said, or what Fauci is saying or said.


Here's the full transcript
Here's the full video

She's just making a semi-irrelevant aside about how when you are randomly testing everyone from a population that's 99% healthly, that it's mathematically possible for a 99% specific test to coexist with 50% false positives, since the actual (and false) positive number is tiny.

But such coexistence is mathematically impossible if even just 2% of those being tested are actually sick.

Specificity = (negative on both test and reality) / (negative on both test and reality + false positive test)

So a world with 2% sick but 50% false positives would yield: 96/96+2 = 98% specificity test.



79% of NYC's reported COVID dead people had a positive lab blood test.
The other 21% did NOT test negative, they were not given a blood test but symptoms of COVID, personal interactions or lived with someone testing positive, etc.

And their demographic makeup matches the confirmed COVID deaths. Before you start up with reports about how every senior citizen respiratory death is called COVID and the financial incentives to encourage inflation are creating these numbers, please be aware that NYC has now repeated zero of single-digit COVID deaths daily for several days. Maybe the virus was actually terrible there and is now mostly under control, because the financial and other incentives you point to haven't changed or gone away but somehow seem to magically have stopped causing doctors to code deaths as COVID.

Of course as an MD I'm sure you know know how specificity is calculated already, so if I'm missing something and 99% specific test with 50% false positive rate co exist when even 2% of the pool of those tested are actually sick, please show us. Thanks.

[MDABE80]

She said it alright. Not sure it still applies. We are still pagued by false positives...........and I don't think it's right. THe left is frothing over this data. Seems like the most current data a fews ago showed slower recurrence in 12 states. today it's 24. Possibly due to letting up on the distancing and relaxation of masking. Major concerns but i also think the testing is still not good enough. Time will tell.
It's a confusing picture. TOny thinks he'll have a vaccine by December.

[willandi]

Coronavirus breakthrough: dexamethasone is first drug shown to save lives


https://www.nature.com/articles/d415...54efa-45349030

[MDABE80]

1THis is a trial in end stage and severe form requiring ventilation. I wonder if this drug would work in early onset (
within 10 hrs of symptoms) people with seropositive or throat swabs that confirm the disease is present WITH symptoms....

Decadron is among the purest anti inflammatory drugs we have. It's not worked well in ARDS due to bacteria or mixed flora causing respiratory failure. We meed to know more... good thing something worked though.

[LTownZag]

Major "superspreader" events account for huge numbers (probably over half) of all COVID infections. Common traits of superspreader events: indoors, prolonged exposures, close proximity, yelling or singing.
Sound like a basketball stadium? COVID is/was not "fizzling out" in May, and will not "be a goner" by july or August.



I think the best realistic hope for next season is to hope for games without fans attending, or with very few fans all mandatorily masked. I find it almost unimaginable that we'd have anything close to capacity crowds.

Here are a couple notes about recent superspreading events (one in Florida, one in Oregon):

[MDABE80]

LTown the number of infectious, hospitalizations, mortality , bent use and requirements have fizzled since May and continue in June in the overall. There are some surges but the few cases that recurr are limited in numbers and are nothing compared to case numbers 90 or more days ago. These are facts. Period.
There are some states where cases recur and the consequences are dropping and in a good way.
Try to remember too that 82% of deaths are over 65 and have other serious diseases. Ie co morbid problems.
The newest liklike of people’s le under 25 acquiring the disease is running at 0.3 per 1000 {very very low).
Well have a good season on the court. Masks, distance and hand washing still rule. By mid Denver there will be over 200 million vaccine doses available with more to come.

You’re just so wrong and yet so negative over COVID. Take a deep breath behind you mask. Things are getting better... not perfect but better.
This is America, not some 3rd rate place. Not China. A first rate nation. We got this! Lol

[LTownZag]

the number of infectious, hospitalizations, mortality , bent use and requirements have fizzled since May and continue in June in the overall.

Here's the data - if that's your version of "fizzled out" I'd hate to see what you think "steady" looks like. Note that the Hopkins numbers are the same as the "our world in data" numbers.

There are some surges but the few cases that recurr are limited in numbers and are nothing compared to case numbers 90 or more days ago.

90 days ago was March 20 and we'd had under 200 total deaths, and had never seen 50 deaths in a day. Our daily confirmed deaths this past week averaged 800. How is the death of 800 people per day "nothing compared to case numbers 90 or more days ago." (which were averaging less than 50/day?)

This is America, not some 3rd rate place. Not China. A first rate nation. We got this! Lol

Being a wealthy or powerful or not a "3rd rate place" is not what is keeping people alive across the world. The top 10 countries by deaths per capita include Andorra, Belgium, Netherlands, Sweden, USA, France, and UK. Meanwhile many of the much poorer countries in Europe (Poland, Greece, Slovakia, Bulgaria) are doing far better. There are absolutely some wealthy advanced economies doing great (Singapore, Australia, South Korea) and other nearby poorer nations (Thailand) also doing well. Mortality has not been particularly correlated to quality of government or standard of living.

[MDABE80]

Your data is wrong . Not in the US. I dunno who or what you're quoting. It's not in synch with the Hopkins data. It's always the same with you....... in the US ( who knows what the WORLD is doing)..all measures are in a favorable trend in the overall. ALways will be or might be a few hot spots.......I explained that to you 90 days ago. . Best wishes.

[LTownZag]

Your data is wrong . Not in the US. I dunno who or what you're quoting. It's not in synch with the Hopkins data. It's always the same with you....... in the US ( who knows what the WORLD is doing)..all measures are in a favorable trend in the overall. ALways will be or might be a few hot spots.......I explained that to you 90 days ago. . Best wishes.

It's the same data. From the same source/s. Literally the same numbers on the same dates, displayed by two separate nonprofit data visualization websites.


Hopkins and "Our World in Data" also make all their raw inputs and (same) sources open and available to the public. Anyone can view or suggest errors in their numbers, and they have things completely transparent via updated and archives GitHub sites with their code open sourced.

Both Johns Hopkins, which you suggest, and "Our World in Data" which you attack as wrong, primarily source death and new cases data from the same health agencies.

Both cite the US CDC and the Euro CDC (European Centre for Disease prevention and control) as their primary sources.


What you are doing is equivalent to claiming you don't like the Gonzaga box score as reported on ESPN.COM and you only trust the gonzaga box score reported on FoxSports.com, meanwhile both show the same box score, and both websites simply display the score automatically fed to them by the scorekeepers working the games for the WCC.

[LTownZag]

Your data is wrong . Not in the US. I dunno who or what you're quoting. It's not in synch with the Hopkins data. It's always the same with you....... in the US ( who knows what the WORLD is doing)..all measures are in a favorable trend in the overall.

"My" data is EXACTLY in sync with the "Hopkins data" down to the single digit. Here Is Hopkins and "Our World In Data" showing the EXACT SAME daily and year-to-date cumulative deaths as of 6/20.