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  • #16
    Originally posted by Markburn1 View Post
    Sometimes we want hard data to base our actions on. Sometimes we want models that have guesswork involved. Sometimes we want to create numbers that match an agenda. A lot of times there are some people that use all of the above to affirm preconceived endgames. Go figure. Everyone seems to be.
    In my line of work we use machine learning which uses historical data to "train" analytical models to improve predictive accuracy. The analyses run continual, multiple scenarios against historical data and compare against actual results, identifying what factors cause variations from the correct outcome. The models continually adjust and improve in accuracy over time as historical data grows and the number of analyses increase, providing the model with greater fidelity. Until we can get adequate or complete data, we frequently use statistical analysis to create 'synthetic' data that fits within the predicted model results, but can be replaced with actual data as i increases in availability and reliability. The approach is a fundamental component of Artificial Intelligence.
    'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
    - Gandalf the Grey

    ________________________________



    Foo Time

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    • #17
      Well, so much for this thread. That's why I said in my post, I wasn't going to touch the last half of the post made by LTown. This thread is supposed to be about the dates as they are scheduled yet it has turned into a COVID discussion again. Sad...

      Comment


      • #18
        "New cases dropping fast" is an interesting interpretation of this data:






        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by MDABE80
          One key ban this fool. Wrong data d he blows up every conversation. An editable fool who know jack cht. Every time we begin a thoughtful thing redaction bee appears and Nunez the conversation. A fake person with fake data unconfirmed . This is his 7th time. Somebody throw this fool out!
          MDABE80,

          I posted graphs from Time Magazine and Our World in Data. The data for the TIME graph comes from Johns Hopkins, which you have repeatedly suggested people use, and said you use.

          You are making an empirical claim, not a subjective one, about changes in new case numbers. You give no evidence, then you insult me personally and describe my 2 charts as being the "fake data" when evidence to the contrary is presented. I'd love to see evidence of a fast drop in new cases.



          WillandI,

          Thanks for posting those links! I hope Basketball and Baseball can restart soon! I'm hoping those sports, plus fall sports, help ready the public and iron out the bumps on the road to a college Bball season.

          Comment


          • #20
            https://www.evaluate.com/covid-19-daily-update

            Too bad Ltown. you've been BS from the start. Read the text and begone. And stay gone till you decide to stop blowing up threads.. This is not a public health board,..it's a Gonzaga basketball and sports board. You have continued to doom threads by inserting garbage.. You have interrupted multiple threads . As you can see ( if you might understand) death rate is dropping as are new cases. There will be blips but the trend is downward. Just compare to two weeks ago and then one week ago......you might get the picture.
            " You are making an empirical claim, not a subjective one, about changes in new case numbers"....sorry these facts are not "empirical"..go look up the word. Time magazine is always political and is to be disregarded. You might know that. While I've tried to lay low on insults.....you deserve many. I've tried to minimize. When someone is a pretender but has false fakes.....it's time to step up. I did.

            All this said, will you kindly stop interrupting threads? Every one has to be stopped because your incessant crazy comments that have only tangential meaing to the topic at hand. I suppose I could swallow some of the BS if it was correct. but BS it is. And yes, TIME magazine is simply NOT a source to be believed.

            You night go to Kitzbuel's short explanation on modeling which completely debunked yours from a few days ago. And yet you've continued and I hope you'll end.

            '

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by MDABE80 View Post
              https://www.evaluate.com/covid-19-daily-update

              Too bad Ltown. you've been BS from the start. Read the text and begone. And stay gone till you decide to stop blowing up threads.. This is not a public health board,..it's a Gonzaga basketball and sports board. You have continued to doom threads by inserting garbage.. You have interrupted multiple threads . As you can see ( if you might understand) death rate is dropping as are new cases. There will be blips but the trend is downward. Just compare to two weeks ago and then one week ago......you might get the picture.
              " You are making an empirical claim, not a subjective one, about changes in new case numbers"....sorry these facts are not "empirical"..go look up the word. Time magazine is always political and is to be disregarded. You might know that. While I've tried to lay low on insults.....you deserve many. I've tried to minimize. When someone is a pretender but has false fakes.....it's time to step up. I did.

              All this said, will you kindly stop interrupting threads? Every one has to be stopped because your incessant crazy comments that have only tangential meaing to the topic at hand. I suppose I could swallow some of the BS if it was correct. but BS it is. And yes, TIME magazine is simply NOT a source to be believed.

              '
              Thanks for the link, MDABE80. I appreciate it!

              Here's the chart of daily new cases in north america from your source. It looks like the charts I posted above, which used data from Johns Hopkins, a source you call the gold standard. Your source didn't have an option to separate the USA from the rest of north america. I'm not going to offer any spin on this trend line or say "new cases dropping fast" - I'll simply paste the chart from your linked source. If one interprets "dropping fast" that's up to them.

              Comment


              • #22
                The national percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 at public health, clinical and commercial laboratories decreased from week 17 to week 18. Percentages by type of laboratory:
                •Public health laboratories – decreased from 17.7% during week 17 to 13.2% during week 18;
                •Clinical laboratories – decreased from 10.3% during week 17 to 9.0% during week 18;
                •Commercial laboratories – decreased from 15.9% during week 17 to 13.2% during week 18

                MOST RECENT CDC DATA ( Data from this past week)...you want more LTown??

                It's a basketball Board.not an infectious disease board....too many threads nuked because you didn't seem to get that. Please stop.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by MDABE80 View Post
                  The national percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 at public health, clinical and commercial laboratories decreased from week 17 to week 18. Percentages by type of laboratory:
                  •Public health laboratories – decreased from 17.7% during week 17 to 13.2% during week 18;
                  •Clinical laboratories – decreased from 10.3% during week 17 to 9.0% during week 18;
                  •Commercial laboratories – decreased from 15.9% during week 17 to 13.2% during week 18

                  MOST RECENT CDC DATA ( Data from this past week)...you want more LTown??

                  It's a basketball Board.not an infectious disease board....too many threads nuked because you didn't seem to get that. Please stop.
                  Thanks, MDABE80! It's great to see that the percent of positive tests is falling, as we are gradually testing more people nationally.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...-mlb-employees
                    'Sixty of the 5,754 people in a study of the Major League Baseball employee population tested positive for coronavirus antibodies, a rate lower than what similar studies run in California found, the studies' authors said Sunday.

                    "I was expecting a larger number," said Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a professor of medicine at Stanford University, which ran the study. "It shows the value of doing the science as opposed to guessing."

                    The results of the study, which was held in mid-April, revealed a prevalence of COVID-19 antibodies in the MLB employee population of 0.7% -- a number adjusted to reflect testing accuracy. The survey showed that about 70% of those who tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies had been asymptomatic.'
                    Not even a smile? What's your problem!

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      As follows is some data I pulled together. It is sorted by the ordered shelter in place date from earliest to latest.
                      I classified those states that sheltered in place by March 24 as early. Those that sheltered in place at (or not at all) by April 1 as late.

                      The early states have an average infection level of .6% of their population. For the late states, the average infection level is .3% of their population.
                      Overall, the average infection level of all 50 states and DC is .4%.

                      The average infection rate for the 5 states with no shelter in place order is .3%

                      The rate of infected people dying in the early states was 5.9%. For the late states it was 3.9%. For the non shelter states it was 1.8%. Overall it was 4.3%.

                      The population density of the early states on average is roughly twice that of the late states. Controlling for population density, the infection rates for the early states and late/not at all states would be roughly the same.

                      Here are a couple of apples to apples comparisons based on population density:

                      State Cases Population SQ Miles Pop Den Inf Lev Death Death Rate Shelter Date
                      Florida 41923 21477737 53997 398 0.2% 1782 4.3% 4/3/2020
                      New York 348633 19453561 47224 412 1.8% 27170 7.8% 3/22/2020
                      State Cases Population SQ Miles Pop Den Inf Lev Death Death Rate Shelter Date
                      South Carolina 7927 5148714 30111 171 0.2% 355 4.5% 4/7/2020
                      Michigan 48021 9986857 56539 177 0.5% 4674 9.7% 3/24/2020

                      Data source for cases and deaths is worldometer.com ... Population levels I pulled off of Wikipedia.... Shelter dates I pulled from the New York Times.



                      State Cases population Infection Level Deaths Rate Shelter date
                      California 70637 39512223 0.2% 2891 4.1% 3/19/2020
                      New Jersey 142046 8882190 1.6% 9532 6.7% 3/21/2020
                      Illinois 83021 12671821 0.7% 3601 4.3% 3/21/2020
                      New York 348633 19453561 1.8% 27170 7.8% 3/22/2020
                      Louisiana 32050 4648794 0.7% 2347 7.3% 3/23/2020
                      Connecticut 34333 3565287 1.0% 3041 8.9% 3/23/2020
                      Ohio 25250 11689100 0.2% 1436 5.7% 3/23/2020
                      Washington 17890 7614893 0.2% 953 5.3% 3/23/2020
                      Oregon 3358 4217737 0.1% 130 3.9% 3/23/2020
                      Massachusetts 79332 6949503 1.1% 5141 6.5% 3/24/2020
                      Michigan 48021 9986857 0.5% 4674 9.7% 3/24/2020
                      Indiana 25127 6732219 0.4% 1578 6.3% 3/24/2020
                      Delaware 6741 973764 0.7% 237 3.5% 3/24/2020
                      New Mexico 5069 2096829 0.2% 208 4.1% 3/24/2020
                      West Virginia 1378 1792147 0.1% 58 4.2% 3/24/2020
                      Wisconsin 10611 5822434 0.2% 418 3.9% 3/25/2020
                      Idaho 2260 1787065 0.1% 70 3.1% 3/25/2020
                      Vermont 927 623989 0.1% 53 5.7% 3/25/2020
                      Hawaii 634 1415872 0.0% 17 2.7% 3/25/2020
                      Colorado 19879 5758736 0.3% 987 5.0% 3/26/2020
                      Kentucky 6677 4467673 0.1% 311 4.7% 3/26/2020
                      Minnesota 12494 5639632 0.2% 614 4.9% 3/27/2020
                      New Hampshire 3160 1359711 0.2% 133 4.2% 3/27/2020
                      Rhode Island 11614 1059361 1.1% 444 3.8% 3/28/2020
                      Wyoming 675 578759 0.1% 7 1.0% 3/28/2020
                      Montana 461 1068778 0.0% 16 3.5% 3/28/2020
                      Alaska 383 731545 0.1% 10 2.6% 3/28/2020
                      Maryland 34061 6045680 0.6% 1756 5.2% 3/30/2020
                      Virginia 25800 8535519 0.3% 891 3.5% 3/30/2020
                      North Carolina 15591 10488084 0.1% 596 3.8% 3/30/2020
                      Utah 6432 3205958 0.2% 73 1.1% 3/30/2020
                      Kansas 7195 2913314 0.2% 184 2.6% 3/30/2020
                      Tennessee 16111 6833174 0.2% 265 1.6% 3/31/2020
                      Arizona 11736 7278717 0.2% 562 4.8% 3/31/2020
                      Pennsylvania 61346 12801989 0.5% 3917 6.4% 4/1/2020
                      Nevada 6311 3080156 0.2% 312 4.9% 4/1/2020
                      DC 6485 705749 0.9% 336 5.2% 4/1/2020
                      Texas 41149 28995881 0.1% 1158 2.8% 4/2/2020
                      Maine 1477 1344212 0.1% 65 4.4% 4/2/2020
                      Florida 41923 21477737 0.2% 1782 4.3% 4/3/2020
                      Georgia 34737 10617423 0.3% 1465 4.2% 4/3/2020
                      Mississippi 9908 2976149 0.3% 457 4.6% 4/3/2020
                      Alabama 10310 4903185 0.2% 429 4.2% 4/5/2020
                      Missouri 10232 6137428 0.2% 531 5.2% 4/6/2020
                      Oklahoma 4732 3956971 0.1% 278 5.9% 4/6/2020
                      South Carolina 7927 5148714 0.2% 355 4.5% 4/7/2020
                      Iowa 12912 3155070 0.4% 289 2.2% na
                      Nebraska 8572 1934408 0.4% 100 1.2% na
                      Arkansas 4043 3017825 0.1% 94 2.3% na
                      South Dakota 3663 884659 0.4% 39 1.1% na
                      North Dakota 1571 762062 0.2% 38 2.4% na
                      Last edited by former1dog; 05-12-2020, 02:56 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Both France and Spain just announced results of major widespread antibody testing, which determines if someone has been exposed to a virus or not.

                        Both countries found ~5% of people exposed, 95% not.

                        Both of those countries have been hit much harder (measured in deaths) than the USA. Spain has 581 deaths (per million), France is 415, USA is 254.

                        Even Europe's hardest hit major countries and early hot spots have a long way to go to reach herd immunity. This test is also further evidence against the hypothesis that COVID-19 was secretly circulating broadly for weeks or months before it became public knowledge.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Good Read.

                          https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/7/21...unity-accurate
                          Not even a smile? What's your problem!

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            I think I know the answer but could someone explain how tracing works? Is it with cell phones, ankle bracelets or a Bill Gates microchip?

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by ZagaZags View Post
                              I think I know the answer but could someone explain how tracing works? Is it with cell phones, ankle bracelets or a Bill Gates microchip?
                              I believe that it is through cell phones. They can keep track of all cell phones, anonymously, and when 1 person is identified, see which other cell phones were within a proximity of that individual within a definitive time frame.

                              At least that is what I read somewhere.
                              Not even a smile? What's your problem!

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by willandi View Post
                                I believe that it is through cell phones. They can keep track of all cell phones, anonymously, and when 1 person is identified, see which other cell phones were within a proximity of that individual within a definitive time frame.

                                At least that is what I read somewhere.
                                That doesn't elicit any level of concern?

                                Combine that with contact tracers and forced quarantines and...there will be no end to government control.

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