Covid Discussion

[LTownZag]

Sorry LT. I just think they’re wrong. Overly enthusiastic. Media driven....perhaps ? It’s. Big ball of cht!

Overly enthusiastic about faking the death of the elderly?

[Markburn1]

https://www.coloradoan.com/story/new...ed/5198485002/

This is what people are referring to when they say bad data is prevalent and skews the numbers on charts, graphs, tables, boxscores…

Colorado changed the way they counted Covid deaths and came up with 25% less deaths actually caused by the virus. That's correct. Their death toll went down. If you don't think this is happening in other states, you aren't living in reality. New York is one of the worst.

[MDABE80]

https://www.coloradoan.com/story/new...ed/5198485002/

This is what people are referring to when they say bad data is prevalent and skews the numbers on charts, graphs, tables, boxscores…

Colorado changed the way they counted Covid deaths and came up with 25% less deaths actually caused by the virus. That's correct. Their death toll went down. If you don't think this is happening in other states, you aren't living in reality. New York is one of the worst.

Amen to your post Mark. For most in the know, it’s beyond argument. And we all heard it first right here

[LTownZag]

Thanks for that link, Mark. All 300 of those dead people had Covid at the time of death and had been counted as dead due to COVID but the state decided to change their causes of deaths to something else.

It is obviously an inexact science to determine which of a couple different maladies is responsible for killing someone. Maybe the reality is that often any one of them alone wouldn't have done it.

Here's a relevant article from a month ago. It's worth noting that at the time Trump was touting the accuracy of the USA's death counts. I wonder if Trump still believes our official counts.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/inves...094_story.html

[MDABE80]

You are not required to have corona infection (COVID)proven
to be counted as a COVID death.

[JPtheBeasta]

You are not required to have corona infection (COVID)proven
to be counted as a COVID death.

To wit:

In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot
be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances
are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it
is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as
“probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should
use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19
infection was likely.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

If my coworkers in other areas of the hospital are being furloughed, and/or my hospital is facing the prospect of closing its doors because there is not enough non-Covid-19 traffic, it would be very tempting to classify as many deaths as possible as Covid-19 deaths. If I also had a political or moral agenda, it would be even more tempting.

In case anyone wants to challenge the reality that hospitals are getting paid more for Covid-19:

It is true, however, that the government will pay more to hospitals for COVID-19 cases in two senses: By paying an additional 20% on top of traditional Medicare rates for COVID-19 patients during the public health emergency, and by reimbursing hospitals for treating the uninsured patients with the disease (at that enhanced Medicare rate).

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/ho...9-death-count/

[sonuvazag]

The CDC says the number of confirmed and probable deaths is probably an undercount.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm

Counting only confirmed or probable COVID-19–associated deaths, however, likely underestimates the number of deaths attributable to the pandemic. The counting of confirmed and probable COVID-19–associated deaths might not include deaths among persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection who did not access diagnostic testing, tested falsely negative, or became infected after testing negative, died outside of a health care setting, or for whom COVID-19 was not suspected by a health care provider as a cause of death.

Monitoring of all-cause deaths and estimating excess mortality during the pandemic provides a more sensitive measure of the total number of deaths than would be recorded by counting laboratory-confirmed or probable COVID-19–associated deaths.

[kitzbuel]

Covid Discussion

To wit:


https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

If my coworkers in other areas of the hospital are being furloughed, and/or my hospital is facing the prospect of closing its doors because there is not enough non-Covid-19 traffic, it would be very tempting to classify as many deaths as possible as Covid-19 deaths. If I also had a political or moral agenda, it would be even more tempting.

In case anyone wants to challenge the reality that hospitals are getting paid more for Covid-19:

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/ho...9-death-count/

Why is the substantial increase in deaths when compared to historic averages so consistent across so many different regions and countries across the world? The whole world doesn't get Federal Covid-19 funding nor do they all have the same political agendas as the US. That doesn't seem to compute to me just from a simple Occam's razor analysis.

[JPtheBeasta]

Why is the substantial increase in deaths when compared to historic averages so consistent across so many different regions and countries across the world? The whole world doesn't get Federal Covid-19 funding nor do they all have the same political agendas as the US. That doesn't seem to compute to me just from a simple Occam's razor analysis.

Persons outside of the U.S. have referenced similar concerns about no differentiation between "death with Covid" versus "death from Covid." This dynamic is not an isolated one (I don't know about issues about funding or potential motives). I agree with Sonuvazag that excess mortality is the best way of knowing what is truly going on. The caveat, as I see it, is that we were in the midst of a flu season as bad as 2018 before Covid-19 happened. Influenza deaths are estimated because it is rarely put on death certificates as the cause of death. The CDC has the unenviable task of sorting out what excess mortality is from influenza vs. Covid-19. If we are using excess mortality to estimate influenza numbers already, the reasoning could end up somewhat circular. I think that it is inevitable that these numbers will be contested. These numbers are subject to change and we probably won't have an official tally for months when the cloud of war has abated(using the 2018 flu as an example, I read an article that referenced a large death number that was later officially changed. I am not questioning the validity of doing so, but just mention this to say that I know it happens).

[sonuvazag]

Persons outside of the U.S. have referenced similar concerns about no differentiation between "death with Covid" versus "death from Covid." This dynamic is not an isolated one (I don't know about issues about funding or potential motives). I agree with Sonuvazag that excess mortality is the best way of knowing what is truly going on. The caveat, as I see it, is that we were in the midst of a flu season as bad as 2018 before Covid-19 happened. Influenza deaths are estimated because it is rarely put on death certificates as the cause of death. The CDC has the unenviable task of sorting out what excess mortality is from influenza vs. Covid-19. If we are using excess mortality to estimate influenza numbers already, the reasoning could end up somewhat circular. I think that it is inevitable that these numbers will be contested. These numbers are subject to change and we probably won't have an official tally for months when the cloud of war has abated(using the 2018 flu as an example, I read an article that referenced a large death number that was later officially changed. I am not questioning the validity of doing so, but just mention this to say that I know it happens).

It is unavoidable that there will be some uncertainty about the conclusions that are made about the impact of COVID-19, but when I look at NYC's mortality data over the last 20 years up until early April, I just can't help but be convinced that COVID has been a unique factor.

[kitzbuel]

Persons outside of the U.S. have referenced similar concerns about no differentiation between "death with Covid" versus "death from Covid." This dynamic is not an isolated one (I don't know about issues about funding or potential motives). I agree with Sonuvazag that excess mortality is the best way of knowing what is truly going on. The caveat, as I see it, is that we were in the midst of a flu season as bad as 2018 before Covid-19 happened. Influenza deaths are estimated because it is rarely put on death certificates as the cause of death. The CDC has the unenviable task of sorting out what excess mortality is from influenza vs. Covid-19. If we are using excess mortality to estimate influenza numbers already, the reasoning could end up somewhat circular. I think that it is inevitable that these numbers will be contested. These numbers are subject to change and we probably won't have an official tally for months when the cloud of war has abated(using the 2018 flu as an example, I read an article that referenced a large death number that was later officially changed. I am not questioning the validity of doing so, but just mention this to say that I know it happens).

My understanding of the argument is : A death with COVID would also likely be a death with influenza. Therefore there are a set of deaths that are deaths with COVID that are not out of the norm because they would happen anyway.

So there is then still another set of deaths that are occurring above the death with COVID set. That set is causing the current substantial increase in deaths compared to baseline. There is also a subset of the deaths with COVID set that are those that likely would not have happened this year. Does this subset merit inclusion in the set of deaths causing the increase above the baseline?

We are substantially above the seasonal threshold and above the 2018 Influenza driven surge. We are also off of the seasonal flu death surge which further removes impact of flu on current death increases. So the bulk of the deaths with COVID likely to be a death with influenza are part of the subset that would not have happened this year.

The one way we will be able to test this I guess is to see if there is a decrease in deaths with influenza next flu season. The logic being that those people were taken a year early.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

[JPtheBeasta]

It is unavoidable that there will be some uncertainty about the conclusions that are made about the impact of COVID-19, but when I look at NYC's mortality data over the last 20 years up until early April, I just can't help but be convinced that COVID has been a unique factor.

I agree that Covid-19 has been a unique factor and have never been an outright Covid-19-denier. I have, admittedly, been skeptical of the impact on the population and the rationale for the severe measures we took.

Total pneumonia and influenza deaths are up from the most recent high:
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

[sonuvazag]

I agree that Covid-19 has been a unique factor and have never been an outright Covid-19-denier. I have, admittedly, been skeptical of the rationale for the severe measures we took.

Total pneumonia and influenza deaths are up from the most recent high:
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

No question there is difficulty picking apart the pneumonia and influenza deaths from the COVID deaths. I remember in March there was a reporter closely tracking the pneumonia and influenza deaths to see if there was maybe a spike of deaths that might suggest misattributed COVID deaths.

As for the severe measures, it was an emergency response and I am all for reevaluating what we do going forward based on new information, with the hope that most people will join in whatever course is decided (as Mark Few says, it helps when everyone is pulling the rope in the same direction.) If the Sweden model is where we're going, for example, there is still a ton of social sacrifice that will be required to make it work. I prefer the test trace isolate model that focuses on isolating the infected instead of the vulnerable (which I believe is a bigger cohort than many expect), but neither choice requires all of us to stay sheltered in place forever.

I saw a tweet thread this morning from the Chair of New York City Council health committee that suggested in the face of coming quarantine fatigue, it would be helpful for us all to get more specific information about the risks of transmission in certain activities compared to others.
https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/st...19636036096002

It’s time to update the all-or-nothing messaging on Covid-19 risk.

Let’s give people the tools to understand that the riskiness of social activities lies on a spectrum.

We are staring quarantine fatigue in the face. We need new guidance--and policies--to meet this challenge.

[JPtheBeasta]

No question there is difficulty picking apart the pneumonia and influenza deaths from the COVID deaths. I remember in March there was a reporter closely tracking the pneumonia and influenza deaths to see if there was maybe a spike of deaths that might suggest misattributed COVID deaths.

As for the severe measures, it was an emergency response and I am all for reevaluating what we do going forward based on new information, with the hope that most people will join in whatever course is decided (as Mark Few says, it helps when everyone is pulling the rope in the same direction.) If the Sweden model is where we're going, for example, there is still a ton of social sacrifice that will be required to make it work. I prefer the test trace isolate model that focuses on isolating the infected instead of the vulnerable (which I believe is a bigger cohort than many expect), but neither choice requires all of us to stay sheltered in place forever.

I saw a tweet thread this morning from the Chair of New York City Council health committee that suggested in the face of coming quarantine fatigue, it would be helpful for us all to get more specific information about the risks of transmission in certain activities compared to others.
https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/st...19636036096002

I agree that it would be very helpful to get a better idea what activities are high risk. For example, how much does talking to someone six feet away from them without a mask on put them at risk for contracting the disease from someone of know or unknown risk?

[MDABE80]

And with all the differing numbers of new cases and mortality, what does this show us? CDC is acclaimed as inaccurate..and so ae many others.
SO what does all these differing numbers tell us? NOBODY KNOWS for sure. Few have even defined what counts as a covid death. Because of an impossible testing chore, we in the US don't know the prevalence of the disease because we don't know the true number.

For me, I've cut back on this these posts because things do change and even the sampling method changes. It's just a crazy way to approach a disease sent our way. Mayhem results and I suspect that was the idea all along. No reason fur members of this board to argue over what we don't know.

JP's data from CDC looks reasonable in terms of who dies. I can see that daily. Older. sicker, infirm ( all criteria for nursing homes). young and healthy..not so much. So you do what you do which is the best you can knowing full well that our knowledge is lacking. We do know where it came from..but even then, some members on this board doubt it came from China. So what do you do with that type of logic?? lol Not much.

Be well friends. mask up, stay away from sick people and wash your hands...…..so what's new?? It's what we always do. Let's get back to work.. The media has driven us nuts with iffy assertions and data that is more opinion than facts. When the media goes wild, the politicians have to do something.....something....even if it's the not so correct thing. Even if one person had died, someone would assert someone else is at fault. It's just the way it is these days. Nobody will accept blame….it would end their careers and because it probably would be wrong to accept some form of blame
This will get over.....like many before it'll mutate and the thirst for a given host will drop. More to come....