Covid Discussion

[LTownZag]

Why is the substantial increase in deaths when compared to historic averages so consistent across so many different regions and countries across the world? The whole world doesn't get Federal Covid-19 funding nor do they all have the same political agendas as the US. That doesn't seem to compute to me just from a simple Occam's razor analysis.

Kitzbuel nails the crux of the argument.

States and regions with high official COVID deaths similarly report very high total numbers of deaths above their average April or may.

States with little COVID, even huge states who locked down early (Ohio, CA) report almost no excess or above average mortality.

If MDABE80 or other covid number skeptics want to explain these excess deaths without citing COVID as their cause, they needs to tell an explanation for why the excess mortality exactly tracks COVID outbreak geography rather than being anything close to evenly spread, or representative per-capita across the country or world, or more correlated with strict lockdowns and no COVID (California, Australia, South Korea, Greece). If lockdowns themselves caused death spikes by limiting medical care or something, we’d see excess mortality in Florida or Arizona or Israel or New Zealand. We don’t. We see it in New Jersey and Massachusetts and Madrid.

[MDABE80]

No. I don’t need to explain the bad and horrible record keeping. I’m not working the data. The record keepers and diagnosticians should be glad I’m not! What don’t you “get” when the state of the art isn’t.

[kitzbuel]

Covid Discussion

Abe, I am not convinced that the whole world started keeping records badly all at the same time three months ago.

Unless perhaps COVID 19 is a cognitive virus.


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[MDABE80]

Well I usually don’t like universal statements and I didn’t say the whole world was wrong or inaccurate. But when a disease is more or less smuggled in you just can’t know. Worse when testing wasn’t done and then the accuracy of the tests is still in development. Kitz,See where I’m going? Nobody knew. Nobody knew then and now who has corona... not by tests or a clinical picture. Add to that lots of people buried with a SC if covid but not tested. To this day. We don’t know. There is no gold standard. With the above. The whole world didn’t all at once go south simultaneously but the certitude has fallen a lot.

It reminds me if how we determined who had normal thyroid function . I can’t remember if Sili was around then. But here’s how it went... since we didn’t know who had normal limits., we just picked out 50 normal looking men and women and measured thyroid hormone... then Forms of thyroid which we didn’t know existed till we looked harder. And that was that. Normal thyroid function!
In some ways this is kinda like that. Lots of guys with normal and abnormal test who look healthy and probably are!
Who can tell?
So to shorten this up, you can see why even a lab tool for covid may be less useful. 20 tests are now in development. Who’s best is unknown till we measure thousands more. Or those who think they can tell by clinical exam... right!

And then the money incentive yields its head. No. The whole world wasn’t wrong simultaneously. But they weren’t right either. Just get a mask. Wash ur hands and keep ur distance as best you can!

[sonuvazag]

The CDC's 60-page roadmap reopening America was just posted:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/19/polit...ing/index.html

[LTownZag]

Well I usually don’t like universal statements and I didn’t say the whole world was wrong or inaccurate. But when a disease is more or less smuggled in you just can’t know. Worse when testing wasn’t done and then the accuracy of the tests is still in development. Kitz,See where I’m going? Nobody knew. Nobody knew then and now who has corona... not by tests or a clinical picture.

We actually do know to a high degree, certainly far higher than any historical global pandemic.

From March 11 to May2 there were 24,200 more deaths in NYC than the average of those dates from recent years. Of those 24,000 dead people, 13,800 (57% of excess deaths, 72% of counted COVID deaths) were given a COVID lab test and tested positive. Another 5,000 dead people were listed as probably COVID. These folks didn't get tested, but often had close associations (spouse, etc) with those who already tested positive. These people did not test negative, and they died of COVID associated symptoms. Those two cohorts, which comprise the official COVID count from NYC, account for 78% of the total excess mortality in NYC over that 7 week period. The other 5,300 people (22% of the excess mortality) are not counted as Covid deaths. Perhaps more than 0, the current number, actually died of that cause.

You previously suggested our domestic Covid death toll is falsely inflated by 25-50%. Well in NYC, 72% of their counted official toll had positive lab tests, and the remainder did not test negative.

[MDABE80]

Pretty pictures don’t t tell the story. The sources use the inaccurate data. Might make feel could good to post garbage but it’s wrong when it’s based on inaccurate assumptions. But it’s been your way from Day 1. So be it. You and I are like oil and water. You have no particular credential and your obnoxious ways have gotten you corner time twice. In many ways, it's just not worth my time to talk to someone who obviously wants to make an impact but doesn't have the goods. I have been locked down for weeks at a time by your faithful friend Long Island Zag. I'm not going to unload on you. I like this board (even if it's not basketball) but getting shown the door for some odd provoked (by you) reason is just not worth it to me.

Good luck with your goofy light weight info. You don't even know how minimal your knowledge is. I love listening to Kitz, Jazz, Tex, CDC, JP (amazing smart guy) Mark and quite a few others ( the list is long). Decades long friends. You're just not worth it.

[LTownZag]

Why are you personalizing my linking the cdc report of the NYC data?

Literally nothing I wrote and none of the evidence I provided is dependent on me or anyone’s personal identity. You could address the data or attack personalities as a way to avoid confronting the data.

[willandi]

This is how all the other Covid threads got locked. People bickering back and forth.
Please present your ideas. If someone else has a different one. let them No need for attacks and name calling.

This one has made it into a 6th page. Lets keep sharing the data and ideas. Please.

[MDABE80]

Will you are correct. That's why I posted what I did. L town always blows up threads. He's done it 4 times by my count. That's why I bailed. It's like talking to a fire hydrant who talks back.

[willandi]

"For now, the tests are most helpful for researchers trying to track how the virus spreads in communities."


https://abcnews.go.com/Lifestyle/wir..._headlines_hed

[Markburn1]

Estimates. Caveats. Might Not. Great Unknowns. Crude.

https://spectator.us/stanford-study-...us-deadly-flu/

Those are just a few of the words included in this article.

My takeaway? Nobody knows. Data is woefully incomplete. Everybody is guessing.

The worst part is the politicizing of the numbers from all sides. Not helpful.

None of that precludes me from the opinion that the cure is worse than the disease in the long term. Short term it helped to mitigate a rapid spread that was thought to ease pressure on hospitals. After that was accomplished the goalposts were moved and those posts continue to migrate while people's lives are torn apart. It's arrogant to think we will be able to stop this without considering nature will run it's course. It's time to protect the most vulnerable and the rest of us need to go to work.

[JPtheBeasta]

Things to at least consider when thinking about the excess death/all cause mortality numbers, in my opinion:
- We were having a really bad flu season on the level of the most recent really bad one.
- There are multiple reports that very sick persons are not seeking care for non-Covid illness. There are good reasons to think that someone could be dying unnecessarily because of fear of going to the hospital. This impact is hard or nearly impossible to quantify
- Excess mortality has been high in nursing homes and there are other factors that can contribute, like poor access to medical care as doctors avoid these facilities or under appreciated contributors such as depression or stress. This is also hard or nearly impossible to quantify.

[sonuvazag]

Things to at least consider when thinking about the excess death/all cause mortality numbers, in my opinion:
- We were having a really bad flu season on the level of the most recent really bad one.
- There are multiple reports that very sick persons are not seeking care for non-Covid illness. There are good reasons to think that someone could be dying unnecessarily because of fear of going to the hospital. This impact is hard or nearly impossible to quantify
- Excess mortality has been high in nursing homes and there are other factors that can contribute, like poor access to medical care as doctors avoid these facilities or under appreciated contributors such as depression or stress. This is also hard or nearly impossible to quantify.

I agree but would add that most of these are still an indication of the overall impact of COVID-19 to a hard hit community.

[LTownZag]

Will you are correct. That's why I posted what I did. L town always blows up threads. He's done it 4 times by my count. That's why I bailed. It's like talking to a fire hydrant who talks back.

Have I ever personally attacked or insulted you, even by insinuation? Even when I asked about your incorrect predictions I asked specifically about the mental model or insider medical information or unique assumptions behind those predictions. I’m interested in ideas not personalities. Meanwhile you’ve insulted me with every name in the book.

How is linking to a CDC summary of NYC testing data a form of “blowing up threads”?

Mark (and others) who correctly and respectfully assert that there are still so many unknowns:

I agree 100% humility is important. We do not know 100% of things, that does not mean we know 0% of things.

There’s a huge difference between those two statements. The second one, carried to an extreme, leads to innumerate nihilism and belief in a subjective version of reality and “my truth” vs “ your truth”.

We know, for instance, that 72% of NYC’s covid counted deaths had positive covid lab tests. We know the remaining 28% did not receive a negative, they just weren’t tested. We know in addition that these two groups only represent 78% of NYC’s unprecedented spike in deaths from 3-11 to 5-2. And we know excess mortality numbers, which far exceed official covid deaths, are geographically, temporary, and demographically correlated with lab test confirmed covid outbreaks, not government lockdowns or population size.