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  • Covid Discussion

    It stands to reason that if the goal truly is herd immunity then people actually need to, well... you know... be around each other and get the virus.

  • #2
    Originally posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    It stands to reason that if the goal truly is herd immunity then people actually need to, well... you know... be around each other and get the virus.
    Or hopefully get vaccinated.
    'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
    - Gandalf the Grey

    ________________________________



    Foo Time

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    • #3
      Originally posted by kitzbuel View Post
      Or hopefully get vaccinated.
      The original claim is that we won’t have a vaccine by then. It doesn’t make sense to bemoan the lack of herd immunity while simultaneously warning that cases are still increasing. I shouldn’t have even said anything, then or now.... but we do have the opinion by LTown lingering above that shouldn’t be there, either.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
        The original claim is that we won’t have a vaccine by then. It doesn’t make sense to bemoan the lack of herd immunity while simultaneously warning that cases are still increasing. I shouldn’t have even said anything, then or now.... but we do have the opinion by LTown lingering above that shouldn’t be there, either.
        JPtheBeasta, Your inbox is full.

        --

        Hi JPtheBeasta,

        My post has been posted for too many days for me to be able to delete or edit it at this point. Can you let me know (via private message) what part of the post you feel is an opinion which ought to be deleted? I would have been happy to do so to preserve the discussion.

        Thanks

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by LTownZag View Post
          JPtheBeasta, Your inbox is full.

          --

          Hi JPtheBeasta,

          My post has been posted for too many days for me to be able to delete or edit it at this point. Can you let me know (via private message) what part of the post you feel is an opinion which ought to be deleted? I would have been happy to do so to preserve the discussion.

          Thanks
          Since I made my issue public I will just tell you here and hopefully that is ok, because any feedback would be beneficial to me. In my opinion, the stuff after “Things to consider:” is of the variety that has been getting posts shut down lately and doesn’t directly. I don’t want to be a hypocrite because I have also been vocal about my opinion here and have had lengthy discussions about Covid-19 of my own. I admit that I have a problem of my own to deal with because I have a hard time not responding, which exacerbates the issue. If you and others feel that it is something I am off base on I will work on solving this issue on my end.

          That said, I will clean out my inbox...

          Comment


          • #6
            If you let me know which specific opinion/prediction you disagree with, and why, in private or in the “foo” forum, I’d love to respectfully discuss.

            In the meantime, I’m not sure why COVID related discussion is considered off topic for basketball and moderated as such. It’s obviously incredibly related to the immediate future of GU and the sport.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by LTownZag View Post
              If you let me know which specific opinion/prediction you disagree with, and why, in private or in the “foo” forum, I’d love to respectfully discuss.

              In the meantime, I’m not sure why COVID related discussion is considered off topic for basketball and moderated as such. It’s obviously incredibly related to the immediate future of GU and the sport.
              It’s all good, as far as I’m concerned, and hopefully much ado about nothing. I hope you feel the same. I think my patience with the Covid-19 response has “socially distanced” itself from the rest of my brain at this point. I don’t think I actually disagreed with anything you said but with the (as I see it) catch 22 that was highlighted in which people are worried that we don’t have enough herd immunity to open up the country, yet can’t get herd immunity without opening up the country.

              I do think that the Covid discussion is interesting and agree that it is pertinent to sports, and it is one of the few things left to talk about at this stage. I have wanted to respond more at times (not to you specifically) and either the post got shut down or I worry that what I say will get it shut down— like right now.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by LTownZag View Post
                If you let me know which specific opinion/prediction you disagree with, and why, in private or in the “foo” forum, I’d love to respectfully discuss.

                In the meantime, I’m not sure why COVID related discussion is considered off topic for basketball and moderated as such. It’s obviously incredibly related to the immediate future of GU and the sport.
                Because LTown, no one wants to discuss. They just want to shout.


                Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
                'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
                - Gandalf the Grey

                ________________________________



                Foo Time

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by kitzbuel View Post
                  Because LTown, no one wants to discuss. They just want to shout.


                  Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
                  I'm always happy to have non-shout discussion with anyone! (in this forum if the mods OK it, or in my private messages or the other off-topic forums)

                  I've had some for sure. MarkBurn has disagreed with me and not shouted. LongIslandZagFan has agreed and not shouted.

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                  • #10
                    in NYC they went back last week and reclassified deaths as covid deaths, even without testing.....to the tune of 3700 people...

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by sylean View Post
                      in NYC they went back last week and reclassified deaths as covid deaths, even without testing.....to the tune of 3700 people...
                      Maybe they get more money that way. Who knows..... I will be glad when we get to watch sports again.

                      Quick question. Do you guys think if we don’t have NCAA Football this year, will we have NCAA Basketball?

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by sylean View Post
                        in NYC they went back last week and reclassified deaths as covid deaths, even without testing.....to the tune of 3700 people...
                        This will probably be called shouting, but have you seen the charts showing the difference in deaths this year vs average, and how it exceeds the number of covid deaths reported?

                        "More than 27,000 New Yorkers have died since March 11 — 20,900 more than would be expected over this period and thousands more than have been captured by official coronavirus death statistics. As of Sunday, the city had attributed 16,673 deaths to coronavirus, either because people had tested positive for the virus, or because the circumstances of their death meant that city health officials believed the virus to be the most likely cause of death. But there remains a large gap between the 16,673 figure and the total deaths above typical levels in the last six and a half weeks: more than 4,200 people whose deaths are not captured by the official coronavirus toll."

                        https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...york-city.html

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by scrooner View Post
                          This will probably be called shouting, but have you seen the charts showing the difference in deaths this year vs average, and how it exceeds the number of covid deaths reported?

                          "More than 27,000 New Yorkers have died since March 11 — 20,900 more than would be expected over this period and thousands more than have been captured by official coronavirus death statistics. As of Sunday, the city had attributed 16,673 deaths to coronavirus, either because people had tested positive for the virus, or because the circumstances of their death meant that city health officials believed the virus to be the most likely cause of death. But there remains a large gap between the 16,673 figure and the total deaths above typical levels in the last six and a half weeks: more than 4,200 people whose deaths are not captured by the official coronavirus toll."

                          https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...york-city.html
                          This (some say inflated) method of calculating COVID deaths is similar to how the CDC has counted seasonal Flu deaths for years. Here's more.

                          If you use official annual CDC flu deaths stats to make a comparison with COVID-19, it's logically inconsistent to use numbers for one virus calculated in this way, but oppose similar calculations for the other.

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                          • #14
                            I think that our Covid-19 data, despite the flaws, is better than the influenza estimates. When the claims started that Covid-19 was just like a bad flu season, one of the first things I did was see what we know about the flu. It left me with the impression that we need to do better with the data. The CDC web page is an eye opener in this regard. States are not required to report influenza deaths in anyone over 18. I saw an article that talked about 80,000 flu deaths in one year and the CDC page ultimately revised that number to 60,000. There's a large degree of uncertainty there.

                            Do you potentially make the Covid-19 data just as bad by throwing in models and estimates? Do you revise the numbers in one year from now when all of the data shakes out? Do you suck it up and say that we just have a certain degree of uncertainty about the influenza and Covid-19 data and call it a day?

                            I'd prefer leaving well enough alone with the understanding that we can't fix the influenza numbers now and that if we adjust the Covid-19 numbers to make it more like the influenza numbers we risk making our understanding worse, not better.

                            https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/faq.htm

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                            • #15
                              Sometimes we want hard data to base our actions on. Sometimes we want models that have guesswork involved. Sometimes we want to create numbers that match an agenda. A lot of times there are some people that use all of the above to affirm preconceived endgames. Go figure. Everyone seems to be.

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