Roth, Zags plan for season of uncertainty

[hegotit!]

With all the information and disinformation out there and the back and forth from the head scientist and doctors, who knows what to believe sometimes??

So in this situation I fall back to my education and common sense. The decision makers/Governor states that he is relying on the science, my problem with that is he has constantly been moving the goal post and not stuck to the science. The stay at home order was to flatten the curve to not overwhelm the hospitals. In eastern Washington that was successful. We move to phase 2 and now the goal is to keep people safe. So now the Governor is going to mandate masks.

Do masks work? Here again there is much proof from both sides. In Japan it is their culture to wear masks when they are sick and in public. Sounds fair to me. My opinion from everything out there is healthy people should not have to wear a mask. So why are we going to be required to wear a mask?

This leads to can asymptomatic transmission take place between people?? This one I have to lean towards its only contagious when a person has a fever like other illnesses.

[caduceus]

Nobody seems to recall my postings from February and March. I warned everyone here about the seriousness of this pandemic (including my medical colleague friends on this board who were making frivolous flu comparisons), and very sadly bailed myself on attending the WCC tournament because of the data.

Yesterday, Inslee said the masking mandate would likely continue until a vaccine is available. Anyone think a vaccine will be ready in November? We'll be lucky if it's not another six months after that, and that's very optimistic. The earliest a vaccine was ever developed was in 4 years. I already exposited about the germy nature of basketball. Outside of American football, there isn't a sport that doesn't spread microörganisms better (and I made a post specifically about that too). See my posting history.

I learned from the best in Hughes Hall, researched and published on microbiological processes for many a summer at GU. Learned at the largest research University in this state. Worked with many of the epidemiologists and virologists on the front line here in Washington State, including those making policy right now, and shared microscopes with and worked with those that are doing the vast majority of viral testing in our state at the moment. I'm not here to brag, but to share knowledge.

I'm super excited about our emerging rosters. I'm super depressed about the fact that virtually no one will adhere to the advice of our scientists. Pretty much every doctor colleague I know has sadly given up trying to advise the public due to the overwhelming backlash of stupidity, and that includes some of my dearest, dearest alumni friends that send me articles every time there's news that it's all a hoax, and "Texas is winning!" I'm ready to give up on these people I've known and loved for decades.

Several studies have shown that universal mask usage would likely drop Ncov19 transmission by 90%. Other studies have definitively shown that the earlier a country mandated masks, the better their outcomes were. It's no longer a point of contention, except for the people ignoring the scientific facts. College Basketball is a national game, and that requires every region and school to have essentially entirely healthy players.

The current trajectory suggests that there will be no games through the rest of this year, and likely beyond. That breaks my heart, particularly for my alma mater and favorite team. I truly hope I'm wrong.

The other WCC states are getting absolutely hammered right now. I wish I had better news. There is no "viral attenuation" happening. It's still as infectious (with minimal mutation) and a large number of seriously ill are under 60, and even under 40. I've seen it. We're just protecting our most vulnerable (elderly) better.

I'll reiterate again. Wear masks, wash hands, keep your distance. Follow the recommendations. Hope for the best.

Stay safe all my Zag friends.

Edit: Bottom line -- If YOU WANT TO HAVE BASKETBALL, you have to stop this virus in its tracks. The way you do that is masking, social distancing, testing, testing, testing, contract tracing and quarantining. Outside of masks, these effective methods are as old as time. Do that until we have a safe and effective vaccine.

[hegotit!]

A question for Caduceus. Is the virus transmittable between people showing no symptoms?

[willandi]

Hi MDABE80,

Thanks for referencing me and including me in this discussion, I really appreciate your suggestion that I contribute!

Cases are indeed rising in FL and Texas and also a "few" other states. But in this case "a few" means 21 others, with over half the nation's people.

The USA is testing more people daily than ever (now up to ~.5million) but we're seeing a higher percent positive tests than recently as well. When your fraction is getting larger just as your denominator grows, you know that your numerator (people sick) is growing faster than the denominator.

From Johns Hopkins:



If you could give one example of me ever contributing "some midquote of a outdated medical tidbit" please post a link, a quote, or better yet send me a private message. I'd happily delete it. I'd hate to have posted a misquote of an outdated medical tidbit, and would prefer to delete such a thing if I have posted in up to now. Also, if you can offer a single example of me ever making an interdiction (lame or otherwise), I'd happily retract it.

I hope you are having a great day and enjoying summer in the northwest.

I think the point is, post your data, express your opinions, but then trying to get a rise out of Doc should be left out, just as his towards you should be done without.

The answer is...Only time will tell. All the prognostications, all the charts and all the data don't tell us what WILL happen, only what COULD happen.

[tinfoilzag]

Nobody seems to recall my postings from February and March. I warned everyone here about the seriousness of this pandemic (including my medical colleague friends on this board who were making frivolous flu comparisons), and very sadly bailed myself on attending the WCC tournament because of the data.

Yesterday, Inslee said the masking mandate would likely continue until a vaccine is available. Anyone think a vaccine will be ready in November? We'll be lucky if it's not another six months after that, and that's very optimistic. The earliest a vaccine was ever developed was in 4 years. I already exposited about the germy nature of basketball. Outside of American football, there isn't a sport that doesn't spread microörganisms better (and I made a post specifically about that too). See my posting history.

So never. That's when you get a vaccine for corona viruses like MERS and the common cold. Outside of curing the common cold, you never get a vaccine.

There is one plan and there has always been one plan. It spreads enough to gain some semblance of herd immunity without overloading the hospitals. You can draw it out or you can rip off the band-aid but the defense is dealing with the spread, not stopping the spread.

At the core of coming up with the solution is politics. Politics is going to creep into every offering of a solution because the solution depends on one's belief. Do you believe that the government is a benevolent force concerned with your well being or people working in their own self-interest and the interest of those in powerful positions. Wherever you are on the spectrum, it influences your opinion.

Deciding to return to normalcy has a cost. Deciding to stay shut down and infringe on liberties has a cost. It depends on what types of prices one is willing to pay.

Based on the governor's current position, it doesn't look like we'll have a 20-21 season at GU.

[caduceus]

A question for Caduceus. Is the virus transmittable between people showing no symptoms?

It unquestionably is transmissible in that fashion. It's terrible that people have to deal with conflicting information, but part of the problem is that the press doesn't always understand the medical studies, and jump to conclusions. Usually, the medical community is quick to correct those things, but as you probably know.... a lie can travel around the world before the truth even gets its shoes on.

[kitzbuel]

NY, NJ and Conn now require 14 day quarantine period for anyone coming in from certain states, Washington State being among them.

https://apple.news/AXIKuYbxEQTijie7EU9SnkA

It is only June and we are in the “down” period of respiratory diseases. Roth is going to have to be prepared to do a lot of scheduling on the fly.

[Spink]

Nobody seems to recall my postings from February and March. I warned everyone here about the seriousness of this pandemic (including my medical colleague friends on this board who were making frivolous flu comparisons), and very sadly bailed myself on attending the WCC tournament because of the data.

Yesterday, Inslee said the masking mandate would likely continue until a vaccine is available. Anyone think a vaccine will be ready in November? We'll be lucky if it's not another six months after that, and that's very optimistic. The earliest a vaccine was ever developed was in 4 years. I already exposited about the germy nature of basketball. Outside of American football, there isn't a sport that doesn't spread microörganisms better (and I made a post specifically about that too). See my posting history.

I learned from the best in Hughes Hall, researched and published on microbiological processes for many a summer at GU. Learned at the largest research University in this state. Worked with many of the epidemiologists and virologists on the front line here in Washington State, including those making policy right now, and shared microscopes with and worked with those that are doing the vast majority of viral testing in our state at the moment. I'm not here to brag, but to share knowledge.

I'm super excited about our emerging rosters. I'm super depressed about the fact that virtually no one will adhere to the advice of our scientists. Pretty much every doctor colleague I know has sadly given up trying to advise the public due to the overwhelming backlash of stupidity, and that includes some of my dearest, dearest alumni friends that send me articles every time there's news that it's all a hoax, and "Texas is winning!" I'm ready to give up on these people I've known and loved for decades.

Several studies have shown that universal mask usage would likely drop Ncov19 transmission by 90%. Other studies have definitively shown that the earlier a country mandated masks, the better their outcomes were. It's no longer a point of contention, except for the people ignoring the scientific facts. College Basketball is a national game, and that requires every region and school to have essentially entirely healthy players.

The current trajectory suggests that there will be no games through the rest of this year, and likely beyond. That breaks my heart, particularly for my alma mater and favorite team. I truly hope I'm wrong.

The other WCC states are getting absolutely hammered right now. I wish I had better news. There is no "viral attenuation" happening. It's still as infectious (with minimal mutation) and a large number of seriously ill are under 60, and even under 40. I've seen it. We're just protecting our most vulnerable (elderly) better.

I'll reiterate again. Wear masks, wash hands, keep your distance. Follow the recommendations. Hope for the best.

Stay safe all my Zag friends.

Edit: Bottom line -- If YOU WANT TO HAVE BASKETBALL, you have to stop this virus in its tracks. The way you do that is masking, social distancing, testing, testing, testing, contract tracing and quarantining. Outside of masks, these effective methods are as old as time. Do that until we have a safe and effective vaccine.

God’s gift to GU board!

Thanks for your opinion. Sorry NOBODY remembered your Feb/Mar post.

[MDABE80]

The biggest problem in the states with spikes is that people somehow think we are out of this and it's gone......thus, masks, distancing, etc have taken a back seat. All along, this was the edict both here on this board and everywhere I've been. Virus isn't gone despite the apparent attenuation. I do not think basketball will start if there is a recurrence. Data so far doesn't seem to reveal that. without precautions and the pending vaccine, anything goes.

Very good post Cad. Not sure about everything in your post but it does clarify many things.and from a very good medical person.........not a pretender.

[Reborn]

I am not a scientist, nor am I a politician. However, as a graduate of Gonzaga University I can say that I do believe in science. My education helped me discover this fact. So I do follow the guidelines of the recommendations of science, stately very clearly by Caduceus. It has been a little hard to remain safe in my home and wear a mask when going out. But honestly, it is far from being the most difficult thing I've ever done. Actually, it's dang easy. I even made my own mask with the help of my son Demian. It's a small price we need to make in order to save lives and get back to a life style of enjoying life outside our homes.

Go Zags!!!

[LTownZag]

Nobody seems to recall my postings from February and March. I warned everyone here about the seriousness of this pandemic (including my medical colleague friends on this board who were making frivolous flu comparisons), and very sadly bailed myself on attending the WCC tournament because of the data.

Here's the relevant thread/discussion including Caduceus' posts from early March, there weren't any COVID-related posts from Caduceus in February. It's really interesting to see a time capsule from 3 months ago.

http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/...CAA-tournament

Another related thread worth a time capsule revisit from 3 months ago, and I learned an excellent new word from Caduceus:
"Recrudescence"
the recurrence of an undesirable condition.
"recrudescence of the disease is a real possibility"

[Zags11]

Lets see how MLB works. Then NFL season until november. Then we will see.

[caduceus]

So never. That's when you get a vaccine for corona viruses like MERS and the common cold. Outside of curing the common cold, you never get a vaccine.

There is one plan and there has always been one plan. It spreads enough to gain some semblance of herd immunity without overloading the hospitals. You can draw it out or you can rip off the band-aid but the defense is dealing with the spread, not stopping the spread.

At the core of coming up with the solution is politics. Politics is going to creep into every offering of a solution because the solution depends on one's belief. Do you believe that the government is a benevolent force concerned with your well being or people working in their own self-interest and the interest of those in powerful positions. Wherever you are on the spectrum, it influences your opinion.

Deciding to return to normalcy has a cost. Deciding to stay shut down and infringe on liberties has a cost. It depends on what types of prices one is willing to pay.

Based on the governor's current position, it doesn't look like we'll have a 20-21 season at GU.

My friend, tinfoil, I have to completely disagree with the first half of your post, from a medical/scientific/epidemiological perspective.

First off, coronavirus comprises a small amount of "common colds." Most colds are rhinoviruses, and second are adenoviruses. Of the dangerous coronaviruses, MERS was too deadly and so there wasn't enough community spread to do a clinical trial. Similarly, SARS petered out before Oxford and others could trial their (nearly ready) vaccines. The other coronaviruses weren't worth the time since they only gave you sniffles.

Herd immunity through nCov-19 "spreading over the population," by some studies suggest 5-7 years before we reach that (without a vaccine), and recent studies suggest antibody protection may only last a matter of a few months. If so, you'll probably NEVER reach herd immunity.

Dealing with the spread (i.e. flattening the curve) is beneficial to prevent overload of the hospital system (which nearly every layperson thinks is the only reason due to the news), but there are a host of other benefits (increasing PPD availability, giving time for better treatments/vaccine, enabling more robust testing [which requires more kits and PPD], hiring contact tracers, establishing more efficient protocols based on region, establishing and training the public and businesses how to operate safely, etc.,etc.). Many other things as well, but it would require an epidemiology course to cover them all. Authorities try to keep it simple so people will hopefully comply, but if you try to explain all these reasons to the public, eyes start to glaze over.

Stopping the spread is something you add onto largely AFTER flattening the curve. Without a vaccine, it's the way you STOP. THE. VIRUS. IN. ITS. TRACKS. It's been known for every serious infectious disease, and is a tried and true public health measure. Once you punch the virus in the mouth by slowing transmission (flattening the curve), you ease restrictions gently, test expansively, isolate the positives, and find their recent contacts (contact tracing) and isolate them as well. It's highly effective when applied properly (see just about every other country that's done better than the U.S.). Some call it the Hammer and the Dance. Lockdown is the hammer. Opening up, and test, isolate and contact trace is the dance. If things get worse, you apply the hammer again. If things get better, you gently apply the dance.

The problem is is that people want the light switch approach. Off/On. There are nuances to this. You HAVE to take that into consideration, and you have to apply them regionally. The big problem is that the population won't adhere to restrictions if they're applied all at once. The CDC has known this since the 50s, so even their protocols call for gentle introduction to the public of measures that are anathema to typical everyday life. Unfortunately, people use this as an argument that they're not consistent, or that they're moving the goalposts. Add to that the changing conditions on the ground, and you end up with even bigger problems. IT'S NOT EASY!

Your second half of the post regards politics. I won't get into that as that's not for this board, and not a topic I'm interested in discussing. I advocate following the science. I understand there are societal, economic, whatever issues. But, if the science was listened to early on, we'd be over this largely and college basketball would not be having nearly the issues that they are facing. A sad truth.

We applied the hammer, and it worked. Nobody wanted to deal with the dance, and thought it was all over. Fauci is right. We're going to be dealing with this for a good long while. It all starts with TESTING.

Pray for a vaccine sooner rather than later, and enough doses to distribute it.

[MDABE80]

So where have you been Cad??? The lab? Good to see you posting again and in such clear terms.

[caduceus]

So where have you been Cad??? The lab? Good to see you posting again and in such clear terms.

Hey, partner. I'm sort of allergic to the off-season. I get too wrapped up during the on-season! I lurk (often) from Apr-Oct, just don't post unless my britches are burning. I generally avoid the recruiting stuff because it's often toxic, but it's like opening a present on Christmas Day when the season starts!